Market Nightmare
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.95%
- Nasdaq 100: -5.49%
- Russel 2000: -3.12%
- Bitcoin: -1.27%
Wall Street had a rough week, with the S&P 500 (SPX) dropping 2.0%, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) tumbling 5.5%, and the Russell 2000 (RTY) losing 3.0%. AI and semiconductor stocks took the biggest beating as investors questioned sky-high valuations and massive AI spending. Inflation didn't help either. September's CPI climbed to 3.7% annually, while producer prices jumped 1.3% in a single month. Retail sales rose 0.8%, but much of that increase came from higher gas prices. Even falling Treasury yields couldn't save tech from the selloff.
Corporate earnings kicked off with mixed results from major banks, while strong reports from ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor weren't enough to stop the chip selloff. CoreWeave got hammered as concerns grew over debt-fueled AI expansion. Tesla grabbed headlines by unveiling its rocket-assisted Roadster, capable of briefly flying, although production isn't expected until 2028. Meanwhile, Trump suggested the U.S. could strike Iran's fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, keeping tensions high and oil prices elevated. Between inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and AI concerns, traders had plenty to worry about.
Looking ahead to next week, earnings season really heats up. Tuesday brings housing starts alongside reports from Netflix and General Motors. Wednesday is the big one, with Tesla and Meta reporting after the bell. Thursday features weekly jobless claims and the CB's Leading Economic Index, while Friday wraps things up with S&P Global's manufacturing & services PMIs and the UoM's final consumer sentiment report. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, October 19th
None
Tuesday, October 20th
Morning: GM & Northrop Grumman
Evening: Capital One, Netflix, SpaceX & United Airlines
Wednesday, October 21st
Morning: AT&T
Evening: IBM, Meta & Tesla
Thursday, October 22nd
Morning: American Airlines & Lockheed Martin
Friday, October 23rd
Morning: American Express
Market Events
Monday, October 19th
None
Tuesday, October 20th
None
Wednesday, October 21st
None
Thursday, October 22nd
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, October 23rd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, October 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 59%
- Profit Factor: 0.83
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, October 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.52
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, October 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 55%
- Profit Factor: 1.23
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, October 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 55%
- Profit Factor: 1.27
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, October 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 45%
- Profit Factor: 1.28
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (16 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 17 Trades
October Record: 32/32 Units
Monday, Oct. 12th
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, Oct. 13th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $779 / $780) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $745 / $746) 🟢
Wednesday, Oct. 14th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $777 / $778) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $741 / $742) 🟢
Thursday, Oct. 15th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $764 / $763) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $715 / $714) 🟢
Friday, Oct. 16th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $774 / $775) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $726 / $727) 🟢
Seasonal Cider Consumed
All of it *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $1.75/ea and were bought back at $1.00/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,250!!!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $1.30/ea and were bought back at $1.00/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!!!
