Falling Higher
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +1.15%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.24%
- Russel 2000: -0.90%
- Bitcoin: -2.32%
Wall Street finished the week higher, but the rally was far from broad. SPX gained 1.15%, NDX was basically flat, and RTY dropped 0.9% as higher borrowing costs continued to hurt small caps. Stocks hit fresh records early in the week before AI spending concerns rattled tech. Buyers returned Friday, though the 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated near 5.24%. Meanwhile, SpaceX's wireless expansion hammered telecom stocks, and Delta cut its profit outlook as fuel costs climbed.
The economic picture remains mixed. September's ISM Services PMI slipped to 54.9, while its prices index jumped to 74, signaling more inflation pressure. Consumer sentiment also fell to 46.3, and Fed minutes showed policymakers still considering another rate hike this year. Iran remained a major wildcard, although Trump eased tensions Friday by ruling out military strikes before the midterms and pointing to progress in negotiations. Good news for markets, but oil prices and inflation are still big concerns.
Looking ahead to next week, things should be interesting. Markets remain open Monday despite the bond market holiday. Wednesday brings CPI and the Fed's Beige Book, followed by PPI, retail sales, and jobless claims Thursday. Friday wraps up with import/export prices and industrial production. Earnings season also kicks off with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, ASML, and TSMC. Between inflation data, bank earnings, and Iran headlines, traders will have plenty to watch. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, October 12th
None
Tuesday, October 13th
Morning: Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, United & Wells Fargo
Wednesday, October 14th
Morning: ASML, Bank of America, Blackrock & Morgan Stanley
Thursday, October 15th
Morning: TSMC
Evening: Interactive Brokers
Friday, October 16th
None
Market Events
Monday, October 12th
None
Tuesday, October 13th
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales (Sep)
Wednesday, October 14th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Sep)
02:00 AM ET Fed Beige Book
Thursday, October 15th
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Sep)
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Sep)
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, October 16th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, October 12th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 45%
- Profit Factor: 0.53
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, October 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 45%
- Profit Factor: 1.79
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, October 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 59%
- Profit Factor: 1.70
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, October 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 55%
- Profit Factor: 1.33
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, October 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 59%
- Profit Factor: 1.71
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (16 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 9 Trade
September Record: 53/60 Units
Monday, Oct. 5th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $769 / $768) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $748 / $747) 🟢
Tuesday, Oct. 6th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Oct. 7th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $773 / $772) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $751 / $750) 🟢
Thursday, Oct. 8th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $777 / $778) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $758 / $759) 🟢
Friday, Oct. 9th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $775 / $774) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $747 / $746) 🟢
Pumpkin Bread Consumed
All of it *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and were bought back at $1.30/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,750!!!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $0.70/ea and were bought back at $0.40/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,050!!!
