Happy Halloween!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.57%
- Nasdaq 100: -1.98%
- Russel 2000: +1.23%
- Bitcoin: -3.24%
Wall Street started the week strong, but Big Tech eventually spoiled the party. SPX slipped 0.6%, NDX fell 2.0%, and RTY managed to gain 1.3%. Microsoft posted solid cloud growth, but Alphabet and Amazon reignited concerns about massive AI spending. Intel didn't help either, plunging nearly 29% Friday after a disappointing outlook. The takeaway? Investors are starting to question whether all this AI spending is actually worth it.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.75%–4.00%, while economic data painted a mixed picture. Q3 GDP grew a healthy 3.4%, but September PCE inflation remained stubborn at 3.6%, with core at 3.1%. Consumer confidence improved, though inflation is clearly still a headache. Overseas, tensions with Iran kept oil prices elevated. Trump hinted the conflict could end soon, but ongoing military threats and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz kept traders on edge.
Next week is shaping up to be a busy one. Monday brings ISM Manufacturing and Apple's earnings, followed by JOLTS and the midterm elections Tuesday. Wednesday features ADP employment and ISM Services, while Friday's big event is the October jobs report. Earnings from AMD, Qualcomm, and Palantir will also grab attention. Between the election, economic data, Big Tech earnings, and Iran headlines, there's plenty that could move the market. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect you risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, November 2nd
Evening: Apple & Palantir
Tuesday, November 3rd
Morning: Pfizer & Shopify
Evening: AMD & SuperMicro
Wednesday, November 4th
Morning: CVS, McDonald's & Uber
Evening: Arm, Cava, Qualcomm & Snap
Thursday, November 5th
Morning: Toyota
Evening: Affirm, Airbnb, Cloudflare & Iren
Friday, November 6th
Morning: Moderna
Market Events
Monday, November 2nd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Oct)
Tuesday, November 3rd
10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)
Wednesday, November 4th
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Oct)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, November 5th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, November 6th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Report
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, November 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 66%
- Profit Factor: 2.56
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, November 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 62%
- Profit Factor: 1.15
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, November 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 72%
- Profit Factor: 3.18
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, November 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 76%
- Profit Factor: 3.30
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, November 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 59%
- Profit Factor: 2.10
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 6 times (10 for 10 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 27 Trades
October Record: 50/50 Units
Monday, Oct. 26th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $761 / $760) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $705 / $704) 🟢
Tuesday, Oct. 27th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $765 / $764) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $713 / $712) 🟢
Wednesday, Oct. 28th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, Oct. 29th
SPY Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $772 / $773) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $719 / $720) 🟢
Friday, Oct. 30th
No Signal Produced
Halloween Candy Consumed
All of it *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
These CCS's were sold at $1.40/ea and were bought back at $0.95/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,800!!!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 2 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $1.75/ea and were bought back at $0.50/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,500!!!
