Down We Go
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.90%
- Nasdaq 100: -1.98%
- Russel 2000: -0.96%
- Bitcoin: -0.63%
- Gold: -10.57%
- Silver: -15.92%
Stocks tried to bounce early in the week, but that momentum didn’t last long. The big focus was Wednesday’s Fed decision, where rates were left unchanged and the outlook still leaned toward higher for longer. At the same time, the data didn’t give much relief. Job openings held steady, but February producer prices came in hotter than expected, keeping inflation concerns front and center.
By the back half of the week, sellers were back in control. Jobless claims stayed relatively low, but growth signals were mixed, with a soft Leading Economic Index and weaker housing data not helping sentiment. Add in sticky labor cost pressures and rising oil, and the market faded into Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 dropped 1.9%, the Dow fell 2.1%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.1%, with a clean five-day trading week and no holidays.
Looking ahead to next week, the calendar is lighter but still has a few key reads. Tuesday brings revised productivity and the flash PMIs, which should give a quick pulse check on business activity. Wednesday follows with import and export prices along with the latest international transactions data. Outside of that, it’s a relatively quiet setup, and markets will be open all week. As always, respect your risk and stick to your trading plan. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Mar 23rd
None
Tuesday, Mar 24th
None
Wednesday, Mar 25th
Morning: Chewy
Evening: Beyond Meat
Thursday, Mar 26th
None
Friday, Mar 27th
Morning: Carnival
Market Events
Monday, Mar 23rd
None
Tuesday, Mar 24th
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Mar)
Wednesday, Mar 25th
None
Thursday, Mar 26th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Mar 27th
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Mar)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Mar 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 1.05
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Mar 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61%
- Profit Factor: 2.27
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Mar 25th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 0.90
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Mar 26th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61%
- Profit Factor: 5.94
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Mar 27th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.51
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 4 times (6 for 6 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 12 Trades
March Record: 28/32 Units
Monday, Mar 16th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $667 / $666) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $599 / $598) 🟢
Tuesday, Mar 17th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Mar 18th
No Signal Produced (FOMC Day)
Thursday, Mar 19th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Mar 20th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $657 / $658) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $592 / $593) 🟢
Computer Crashes
3 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $2.20/ea and were bought back at $0.40/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $3,600!!!
These PCS's were sold at $1.00/ea and were bought back at $0.10/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,800!!!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $0.80/ea and were bought back at $0.20/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!!!
