Buckle Up! Things Are Getting Crazy
Hola,
The market is rocketing higher and higher with seemingly has no chill. It's time to pop a cold one because we hit another new all-time high!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.95% (New High)
- Nasdaq 100: -0.26% (New High)
- Russel 2000: +6.10%
- Bitcoin: +2.24%
Some big things went down in the market last week. The most notable updates were the late-week inflation reports. I highly recommend you watch my detailed breakdown video, but the main point is that things are about to seriously change. Inflation is still a persistent issue, but it has been trending in the right direction for a significant amount of time. In fact, the trend is so promising that the market is expecting a rate cut in September. There is now a reasonable chance we get three rate cuts by the end of this calendar year.
The key question now is, what does all this mean for the ole stock market? In my humble opinion, this is a watershed moment. As the Fed rate drops, I believe capital will flow into the Russel 2000 and push the index to eventual new all-time highs. I don't think this will playout overnight, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happens by the end of this year. Additionally, I think this will have the secondary impact of making the tech sector less bullish. I want to be clear -- I don't predict the tech sector with turn bearish. I simply think the unbridled bullish fervor will calm down.
Looking forward, we have a very telling week ahead of us. I'll personally be paying attention to the relationship between IWM and QQQ. I'm curious to see if the rotation from the latter to the former, which was witnessed late last week, will continue. If so, I'm looking for IWM to push $220 and for the QQQs to fall to $480's. It would be silly to assume this will definitively happen, especially with no risk management. I'll be focused on highs pushing higher and lows pushing lower -- Basic trend following methodologies. Godspeed!
Ciao,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, July 15th
12:30 PM ET Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Tuesday, July 16th
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales (MoM) (June)
02:45 PM ET Fed Governor Kugler Speaks
Wednesday, July 17th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jun)
08:30 AM ET Housing Starts
08:30 AM ET Building Permits
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:00 PM ET 20-Year Bond Auction Results
02:00 PM ET Fed Beige Book
Thursday, July 18th
08:15 AM ET ECB Interest Rate Decision
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
08:45 AM ET ECB Press Conference
10:00 AM ET US Leading Economic Indicators
01:00 PM ET 10-Year TIPS Auction Results
Friday, July 19th
10:40 AM ET New York Fed President Williams Speaks
01:00 PM ET Atlanta Fed President Bostic Speaks
Upcoming Earnings
Monday, July 15th
Morning: BlackRock & Goldman Sachs
Tuesday, July 16th
Morning: Bank of America, Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley, PNC & UnitedHealth Group
Evening: Interactive Brokers
Wednesday, July 17th
Morning: ASML & Johnson&Johnson
Evening: Discover & United
Thursday, July 18th
Morning: TSMC
Evening: Netflix
Friday, July 19th
Morning: American Express, Halliburton & SLB
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, July 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 40%
- Profit Factor: 1.83
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, July 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 40%
- Profit Factor: 0.43
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, July 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 1.43
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, July 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 76%
- Profit Factor: 3.37
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, July 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 28%
- Profit Factor: 0.57
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 10 times (17 for 21 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~80%
Piper is doing exactly what she is expected to do -- Let the good times roll!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 2 Trades
July Record: 31/37 Units
Monday July 8th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $557 / $558) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $498 / $499) 🟢
Tuesday July 9th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $555 / $554) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $497 / $496) 🟢
Wednesday July 10th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $556 / $555) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $498 / $497) 🟢
Thursday July 11th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $561 / $560) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $500 / $499) 🔴
Friday July 12th
SPY Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $563 / $564) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $499 / $500) 🟢
Rooms Escaped
0 *
This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
SPY Hit & QQQ Missed
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and all expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!
