Going For Gold!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.39%
- Nasdaq 100: -1.37%
- Russel 2000: -0.84%
- Bitcoin: -2.43%
- Gold: +1.51%
- Silver: -0.33%
Stocks had a choppy week, with a classic “good vibes Monday, bad vibes Friday” feel. Big tech led the mood swings as investors kept wrestling with how fast AI is reshaping winners and losers. By the closing bell Friday, the week still finished in the red: the S&P 500 fell about 1.4%, the Dow slipped about 1.2%, and the Nasdaq took the bigger hit, down about 2.1%.
On the data front, it was one of those weeks where every macro print had a vote. Tuesday brought the delayed retail sales read, which basically said consumers didn’t fall off a cliff, but they weren’t exactly doing cartwheels either. Wednesday’s January jobs report showed payroll growth at 130,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.3%, plus notable downward revisions to prior months that cooled some of the “too hot” talk. Thursday had weekly jobless claims staying in a “nothing’s breaking” zone, while the housing update was a gut check: existing home sales for January dropped 8.4% to a low not seen since late 2023. Then Friday’s CPI for January came in softer than expected, giving rates a little breathing room and helping stabilize the tape into the weekend.
Looking ahead to next week, it's shorter but still packed. Markets are closed Monday for Presidents Day. Tuesday brings the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index, a quick pulse check on housing confidence. Wednesday is the main event with the Fed’s minutes from the Jan 27–28 meeting, which traders will comb for how close the committee is to another cut. Thursday is busy again with weekly jobless claims, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, and pending home sales, so expect the “rates vs growth” tug-of-war to keep going even in a four-day week. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Feb 16th
None
Tuesday, Feb 17th
Evening: Palo Alto Networks
Wednesday, Feb 18th
Evening: Carvana
Thursday, Feb 19th
Morning: John Deere, Klarna & Walmart
Evening: Texas Roadhouse
Friday, Feb 20th
None
Market Events
Monday, Feb 16th
ALL DAY Market Closed (Washington's Birthday)
Tuesday, Feb 17th
None
Wednesday, Feb 18th
08:00 AM ET Durable Goods Orders MoM & YoY (Dec)
02:00 AM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, Feb 19th
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Feb 20th
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Dec)
08:30 AM ET GDP QoQ (Q4)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Feb)
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Dec)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Feb 16th)
- Market Closed (Washington's Birthday)
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Feb 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 75%
- Profit Factor: 5.13
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Feb 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.72
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Feb 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.24
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Feb 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.15
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 10 times (16 for 20 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~80%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 6 Trades
February Record: 36/40 Units
Monday, Feb 9th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $688 / $687) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $605 / $604) 🟢
Tuesday, Feb 10th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $693 / $692) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $512 / $511) 🔴
Wednesday, Feb 11th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $698 / $699) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $617 / $618) 🟢
Thursday, Feb 12th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $696 / $697) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $616 / $617) 🟢
Friday, Feb 12th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $677 / $676) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $596 / $595) 🟢
Times I Thought I Should Join The Olympics
18 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $1.00/ea and were bought back at $0.30/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,100!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $1.00/ea and were bought back at $0.30/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,400!
