Hello, April!
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.48%
- Nasdaq 100: -2.47%
- Russel 2000: -1.64%
- Bitcoin: +0.38%
Last week, the economy faced heightened uncertainty as stocks went on a rollercoaster, ultimately closing with losses. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Dow all decline. This bearishness was driven by concerns over slowing economic growth, waning consumer sentiment, and the Trump administration’s trade policies. A key trigger was the announcement of 25% tariffs on auto imports effective April 2, which sparked a tech sector selloff, notably impacting companies like Tesla and Nvidia. Consumer confidence continued its downward trend, falling for the fourth consecutive month, while mixed economic data—such as a slightly hotter-than-expected PCE inflation reading — added to downward pressure.
The recent actions of the Fed didn't help the situation. On March 19th, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%, signaling caution amid economic uncertainty. This was followed with a dovish speech from Chair Powell where be brought back his favorite word "transitory." By week’s end, the hotter PCE data and ongoing tariff concerns overshadowed this optimism, contributing to a late-week fade in a mid-week rally. Treasury yields showed mixed responses, reflecting market bets on a cooling economy potentially prompting future rate cuts.
Looking ahead, you should focus on key economic releases that could clarify the economy’s trajectory. The ISM Manufacturing PMI on April 1st and Nonfarm Payrolls on April 4th will provide critical insights into industrial activity and labor market health, respectively, with the latter potentially influencing Fed policy expectations. Additionally, watch for further tariff policy developments, as their scope and retaliatory responses could dictate market volatility and shift sentiment further. Trump has stated multiple times that April 2nd is "Liberation Day," so be prepared. As always, stick to your plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Market Events
Monday, March 31st
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Mar)
Tuesday, April 1st
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Mar)
09:45 AM ET S&P Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Mar)
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Feb)
Wednesday, April 2nd
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, April 4th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 AM ET S&P Services PMI (Mar)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Mar)
Friday, April 5th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Mar)
11:25 AM ET Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, March 31st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 70%
- Profit Factor: 7.46
- Bias: Very Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, April 1st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 67%
- Profit Factor: 1.67
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, April 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 70%
- Profit Factor: 2.38
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, April 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.41
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, April 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 59%
- Profit Factor: 1.86
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 10 for 10 times (28 for 28 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 10 Trades
March Record: 60/70 Units
Monday, March 24th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $570 / $569) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $487 / $486) 🟢
Tuesday, March 25th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $573 / $572) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $489 / $488) 🟢
Wednesday, March 26th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $577 / $578) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $494 / $495) 🟢
Thursday, March 27th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $564 / $563) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $480 / $479) 🟢
Friday, March 28th
SPY Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $567 / $568) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $481 / $482) 🟢
Early Summer Margaritas Consumed
8 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
