Breaking Upward!
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +2.92%
- Nasdaq 100: +3.45%
- Russel 2000: +3.31%
- Bitcoin: +2.35%
Last week, the stock market staged a solid recovery. By May 2, the S&P 500 posted its longest winning streak since 2004, rising 1.5% on the day and 2.9% for the week. The Nasdaq and Dow also logged gains. Still, all major indexes remained negative year-to-date, reflecting continued uncertainty. Notably, Apple estimated a $900 million hit from tariffs, and Amazon issued a cautious outlook, weighing on sentiment.
The economic picture was mixed. On April 30, GDP data showed a first-quarter contraction—the first in three years—stirring recession concerns. However, the April jobs report released on May 2 beat expectations, with 177,000 jobs added versus the 133,000 forecast, and unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, tensions over tariffs persisted, though news that China is reviewing U.S. trade proposals offered a glimmer of hope. It marked the first public sign of potential talks since both nations imposed over 100% tariffs, helping ease some market anxiety.
Looking ahead, key economic data—including inflation and manufacturing reports—will shape the outlook. Progress in U.S.-China trade talks remains a major driver for global markets. Corporate earnings, especially in tech, will shed light on how companies are managing tariff pressures. Also, keep an eye on commodity prices and any Federal Reserve commentary for clues on future policy. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, May 5th
Morning: Berkshire Hathaway
Evening: Ford & Palantir
Tuesday, May 6th
Morning: Celsius
Evening: AMD, Rivian Supermicro & Wynn
Wednesday, May 7th
Morning: Disney, Novo Nordisk & Uber
Evening: ARM, Doordash & OXY
Thursday, May 8th
Morning: Crocs, Peloton & Shopify
Evening: Affirm, Cloudflare, Coinbase & Draft Kings
Friday, May 9th
None
Market Events
Monday, May 5th
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Apr)
Tuesday, May 6th
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
Wednesday, May 7th
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 PM ET Fed Interest Rate Decision & FOMC Statement
02:30 PM ET FOMC Press Conference
03:00 PM ET Consumer Credit (Mar)
Thursday, May 8th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
01:00 PM ET 30-Year Note Auction
Friday, May 9th
08:30 AM ET Fed Governor Kugler Speech
08:30 AM ET Fed Governor Waller & NY Fed President Williams Speak
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, May 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 1.85
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, May 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.56
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, May 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.81
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, May 8th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 1.05
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, May 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 0.94
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 6 times (12 for 12 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 10 Trades
April Record: 50/56 Units
May Record: 4/4 Units
Monday, April 28th
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, April 29th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $548 / $547) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $469 / $468) 🟢
Wednesday, April 30th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $541 / $540) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $462 / $461) 🟢
Thursday, May 1st
No Signal Produced
Friday, May 2nd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $562 / $561) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $484 / $483) 🟢
Times I Broke My Trading Rules
14 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 2 total units!
FML
