How High Can We Go???
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +5.36%
- Nasdaq 100: +7.52%
- Russel 2000: +4.15%
- Bitcoin: +0.50%
Last week’s big story was the breakthrough on U.S.–China trade. Both sides agreed to roll back tariffs for 90 days, cutting U.S. duties on Chinese imports from a punishing 145% to 30%, while China trimmed its own tariffs to 10%. The move injected a fresh dose of optimism into the market and set the stage for broader negotiations.
The macro data added fuel to the rally. April CPI ticked up just 0.2% month-over-month—softer than the 0.3% economists expected—while PPI surprised everyone by dropping 0.5%, its sharpest decline since 2020. Retail sales eked out a 0.1% gain, suggesting consumers are still feeling cautious, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the central bank’s “wait-and-see” stance, acknowledging solid growth but underscoring the lingering tariff uncertainty.
Equities loved the combo of cooling inflation and tariff relief. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finally flipped green for the year, powered by a tech surge that saw Tesla and NVIDIA jump more than 15%. Consumer discretionary and utilities joined the party as well. Options-expiration week magnified the upside: many bearish bets simply melted away.
For the week ahead, keep an eye on the next round of U.S.–China trade talks—any hint of progress (or backtracking) could swing sentiment quickly. On the data front, watch industrial production and a slate of Fed-speak for clues on growth and the rate-cut timeline. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, May 19th
None
Tuesday, May 20th
Morning: Home Depot
Evening: Palo Alto Networks
Wednesday, May 21st
Morning: Target & TJX
Evening: Snowflake & Zoom
Thursday, May 22nd
None
Friday, May 23rd
None
Market Events
Monday, May 19th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Apr)
08:45 AM ET New York Fed President Williams Speaks
10:00 AM ET US Leading Economic Indicators (Apr)
Tuesday, May 20th
09:00 AM ET Richmond Fed President Barkin Speaks
01:00 PM ET St. Louis Fed President Musalem Speaks
Wednesday, May 21st
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, May 22nd
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (May)
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales (Apr)
02:00 PM ET New York Fed President Williams Speaks
Friday, May 23rd
09:35 PM ET Kansas City Fed President Schmid Speaks
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Apr)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, May 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.41
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, May 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 63%
- Profit Factor: 1.88
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, May 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 37%
- Profit Factor: 0.55
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, May 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 1.30
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, May 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.62
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 10 for 10 times (18 for 18 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 32 Trades
May Record: 18/18 Units
Monday, May 12th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $576 / $575) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $501 / $500) 🟢
Tuesday, May 13th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $582 / $581) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $508 / $507) 🟢
Wednesday, May 14th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $584 / $583) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $514 / $513) 🟢
Thursday, May 15th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $583 / $582) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $513 / $512) 🟢
Friday, May 16th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $588 / $587) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $516 / $515) 🟢
Streams I Didn't Yell At Someone
1 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
SPY Hit & QQQ Missed
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and all expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!
