Summertime Sadness
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.94%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.39%
- Russel 2000: +2.48%
- Bitcoin: +0.65%
Last week, markets had a choppy but overall positive week. Tuesday brought a strong rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at record highs after July’s CPI came in cooler than expected, which fueled fresh hopes for a Fed rate cut in September. But Thursday’s hotter-than-expected PPI report poured some cold water on that optimism, leaving markets mixed. Still, the Dow hit an intraday all-time high on Friday, and all three major indexes managed to notch a second straight weekly gain. Meanwhile, trade chatter (like China tariff headlines) kept things noisy.
The economic data did most of the heavy lifting. July CPI showed inflation cooling at 0.2% month-over-month, with core inflation running at 3.1% year-over-year. This was basically in line with expectations. But PPI surprised to the upside, jumping 0.9%. It was the biggest monthly increase in about three years. Retail sales came in solid at +0.7%, showing consumers are still spending. Fed officials stayed cautious, but Chicago Fed President Goolsbee left the door open for a possible rate cut this fall if inflation keeps behaving.
Looking ahead to next week, eyes turn to housing and the Fed. We’ll get housing starts and building permits Tuesday, FOMC minutes Wednesday, and a big earnings report from Walmart Thursday morning. Also, the Jackson Hole symposium kicks off the same day. Fed Chair Powell is set to speak Friday. All of this will help shape market expectations heading into the Fed’s September meeting. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Aug 18th
Evening: Palo Alto Networks
Tuesday, Aug 19th
Morning: Home Depot
Wednesday, Aug 20th
Morning: Target & TJ Maxx
Thursday, Aug 21st
Morning: Walmart
Evening: Zoom
Friday, Aug 22nd
Morning: BJ's
Market Events
Monday, Aug 18th
None
Tuesday, Aug 19th
None
Wednesday, Aug 20th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Jul)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, Aug 21st
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales (Jul)
Friday, Aug 22nd
10:00 AM ET Chair Powell Press Conference
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Aug 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 67%
- Profit Factor: 1.14
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Aug 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.60
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Aug 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.63
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Aug 21th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 67%
- Profit Factor: 1.08
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Aug 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.66
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 7 for 8 times (14 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~87.5%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 7 Trades
August Record: 40/44 Units
Monday, Aug 11th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $636 / $635) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $573 / $572) 🔴
Tuesday, Aug 12th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $636 / $635) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $572 / $571) 🟢
Wednesday, Aug 13th
No Signal Generated
Thursday, Aug 14th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $641 / $640) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $577 / $576) 🟢
Friday, Aug 15th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $647 / $648) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $581 / $582) 🟢
Accounts Blown By Skynet
The limit doesn't exist *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.70/ea (average) and were bought back at $0.675/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,700!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 2 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $1.10/ea (average) and were bought back at $0.30/ea (average) -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.75/ea (average) and were bought back at $0.30/ea (average) -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $675!
