Goodbye August, Hello September!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.14%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.35%
- Russel 2000: +0.16%
- Bitcoin: -7.30%
Last week, markets were choppy, with the bullish glow from Powell’s dovish hints already starting to fade. The Dow managed a 1.6% gain, even hitting its first record high of the year before easing back. The S&P suffered a small weekly loss, while the Nasdaq lagged even more as traders reacted to Nvidia’s earnings and the broader lack of steam. By Friday, stocks pulled back after an in-line PCE inflation print, leaving the S&P down about a third of a percent on the day.
On the economic front, the data kept pointing toward a September rate cut. Consumer confidence cooled, revised GDP confirmed steady growth, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed prices are still running hot enough to watch but not spiraling. Bond yields slid again—30-year Treasuries especially—as investors leaned harder into the “Fed pivot” story. Meanwhile, tariffs and global market jitters added an extra layer of caution to what might’ve otherwise been a relief-rally kind of week.
Looking ahead to next week, next week’s calendar is all about jobs. The market is closed Monday for Labor Day, but by Friday, the August employment report will land. Unemployment and wage data will have a measurable impact on Fed cut odds. ISM manufacturing hits Tuesday, JOLTS job openings come Wednesday, and traders will be parsing every line for signs of cooling momentum. With tech still swinging around and rate cut bets building, expect another headline-driven week. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Sept 1st
None
Tuesday, Sept 2nd
Morning: NIO
Wednesday, Sept 3rd
Evening: C3.ai & Salesforce
Thursday, Sept 4th
Evening: Broadcom
Friday, Sept 5th
None
Market Events
Monday, Sept 1st
ALL DAY Market Closed (Labor Day)
Tuesday, Sept 2nd
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Aug)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Aug)
Wednesday, Sept 3rd
10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job Openings (Jul)
02:00 PM ET Fed Beige Book
Thursday, Sept 4th
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Aug)
Friday, Sept 5th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Aug)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Sept 1st)
- Market Closed All Day (Labor Day)
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Sept 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 0.70
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Sept 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 1.18
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Sept 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 39%
- Profit Factor: 0.60
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Sept 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.75
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 7 for 8 times (14 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~87.5%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 7 Trades
August Record: 70/76 Units
Monday, Aug 25th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $643 / $642) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $569 / $568) 🟢
Tuesday, Aug 26th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $641 / $640) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $568 / $587) 🟢
Wednesday, Aug 27th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $644 / $643) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $570 / $569) 🟢
Thursday, Aug 28th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Aug 29th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $648 / $649) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $575 / $576) 🟢
Count of How Often I Wanted To Quit Trading
44,802 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These CCS's were sold at an average of $0.62/ea and were bought back at an average $0.15/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,400!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 2 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and were bought back at $0.05/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $660!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.65/ea and were bought back at $0.05/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $600!
