Here Comes Spooky Season!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.31%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.56%
- Russel 2000: -0.79%
- Bitcoin: -5.18%
Last week, stocks started the week on a high note, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell all hitting fresh records Monday & Tuesday. Big Tech led the charge, especially Nvidia after announcing a massive AI partnership. The momentum cooled midweek as August durable goods orders came in weak and existing home sales slipped, raising fresh concerns about the economy.
By Friday, investors got some relief. The August PCE inflation report—the Fed’s go-to gauge—came in right on target, showing steady consumer spending and manageable price pressures. That helped trim earlier losses and gave markets confidence that the Fed’s recent rate cut won’t be undone by sticky inflation. Still, the major indices ended the week a touch lower, breaking their winning streak.
Look ahead to next week, all eyes now turn to the labor market. Tuesday brings JOLTS job openings, followed by Friday’s nonfarm payrolls—the headline report that could make or break expectations for another Fed cut. In between, we’ll see ISM and S&P Global services data, jobless claims, and factory orders. With Fed speakers also on deck, next week’s theme is simple: jobs, jobs, jobs. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, Sept 29th
10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales (Aug)
Tuesday, Sept 30th
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Sep)
10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Wednesday, Oct 1st
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Sep)
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
09:45 AM ET S&P Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Sep)
Thursday, Oct 2nd
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Oct 3rd
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Report (Sep)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
09:45 AM ET S&P Services PMI (Sep)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Sep)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Sept 29th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 40%
- Profit Factor: 0.40
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Sept 30th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.57
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Oct 1st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 1.27
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Oct 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.67
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Oct 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 71%
- Profit Factor: 3.68
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 4 times (8 for 8 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 35 Trades
September Record: 54/54 Units
Monday, Sept 22nd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $662 / $661) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $597 / $596) 🟢
Tuesday, Sept 23rd
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Sept 24th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $665 / $666) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $600 / $601) 🟢
Thursday, Sept 25th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Sept 26th
No Signal Produced
Pumpkin Muffins Consumed
14 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
