Hello January!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.10%
- Nasdaq 100: -1.26%
- Russel 2000: -1.15%
- Bitcoin: +3.05%
Last week's holiday trading did what holiday trading always does — Thin volume, choppy moves, and zero conviction. Stocks drifted into year-end with the Santa rally never really showing up, then markets went dark for New Year’s Day (Thu). When trading resumed on Friday, buyers showed up selectively, with some dip-buying in cyclicals and semis, while mega-caps stayed mixed. Nothing dramatic, just the market stretching after a long year.
Data-wise, it was a light but telling week. Pending Home Sales (Mon) surprised to the upside, hinting that housing demand may be stabilizing at lower rates. Tuesday brought a cluster of updates: Case-Shiller home prices continued to cool, Chicago PMI remained in contraction but improved, and the December FOMC minutes reinforced the same message we’ve been hearing. Officials are still debating how restrictive policy really is. Friday’s final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI stayed in expansion territory, keeping the soft-landing narrative alive, even if confidence remains fragile.
Looking ahead to next week, things get real again. Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI. Wednesday: JOLTS job openings. Thursday: weekly jobless claims plus productivity and trade data. And then Friday’s December jobs report takes center stage. With rate expectations already feeling jumpy, that payroll print could be the first real volatility trigger of the new year. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, Jan 5th
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Dec)
Tuesday, Jan 6th
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
Wednesday, Jan 7th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Dec)
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec)
10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job Openings (Nov)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Dec)
Thursday, Jan 8th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Jan 9th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Change (Dec)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)
10:00 AM ET Michigan Report (Jan)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Jan 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 1.20
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Jan 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 0.86
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Jan 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 0.93
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Jan 8th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61%
- Profit Factor: 2.11
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Jan 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 0.56
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (16 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 53 Trades
December Record: 70/70 Units
January Record: 4/4 Units
Monday, Dec 29th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $690 / $691) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $623 / $624) 🟢
Tuesday, Dec 30th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $689 / $690) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $622 / $623) 🟢
Wednesday, Dec 31st
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $688 / $689) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $621 / $622) 🟢
Thursday, Jan 1st
No Signal Produced (Market Closed)
Friday, Jan 2nd
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $687 / $688) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $623 / $624) 🟢
New Year's Resolutions Already Broken
All of them *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $1.05/ea and were bought back at $0.40/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $780!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $0.75/ea and were bought back at $0.20/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $660!
