Do I Hear Santa?!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.63%
- Nasdaq 100: -1.93%
- Russel 2000: +1.20%
- Bitcoin: +1.04%
Last week, markets spent most of the time waiting on the Fed, then finished with a pretty classic rotation. Big Tech and AI names took the heat late in the week, dragging the Nasdaq lower, while the Dow and small caps quietly held up better. By Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was modestly lower on the week, the Nasdaq was the clear laggard, and the Dow and Russell 2000 managed gains as money flowed away from mega-cap growth.
On the macro front, the Fed delivered exactly what markets expected with a 25-basis-point rate cut, but the tone stayed cautious. Policymakers emphasized uncertainty and the need to stay data-dependent, which kept rate-cut optimism in check. Other economic data painted the same familiar picture: The labor market continues to cool without breaking, with job openings drifting lower and hiring remaining sluggish.
Looking ahead to next week, traders should prepare for a packed calendar. Retail Sales and S&P Global’s flash PMI readings will give an early look at consumer demand and business momentum, followed by November CPI midweek, which will be the main event for markets. We’ll also get the November jobs report, the Philly Fed survey, and Existing Home Sales to round things out. No market holidays—just a full slate of data as traders head into the final stretch before year-end. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Dec 15th
None
Tuesday, Dec 16th
None
Wednesday, Dec 17th
Morning: General Mills
Evening: Micron
Thursday, Dec 18th
Morning: Accenture & Darden Restaurants
Evening: FedEx & Nike
Friday, Dec 19th
Morning: Carnival
Market Events
Monday, Dec 15th
None
Tuesday, Dec 16th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Nov)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Oct)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global US Manufacturing & Services PMI
Wednesday, Dec 17th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Oct)
Thursday, Dec 18th
08:15 AM ET ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Oct)
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:45 AM ET ECB Press Conference
Friday, Dec 19th
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Oct)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Dec)
10:00 AM ET Existing Homes Sales (Nov)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Dec 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 1.20
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Dec 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61%
- Profit Factor: 1.00
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Dec 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.29
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Dec 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 0.59
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Dec 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 79%
- Profit Factor: 5.67
- Bias: Very Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 4 times (8 for 8 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 29 Trades
December Record: 26/26 Units
Monday, Dec 8th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $687 / $688) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $629 / $630) 🟢
Tuesday, Dec 9th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $682 / $681) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $621 / $620) 🟢
Wednesday, Dec 10th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, Dec 11th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Dec 12th
No Signal Produced
Tilt Count
14.7 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.70/ea (average) and were bought back at $0.675/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,700!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 2 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $1.10/ea (average) and were bought back at $0.30/ea (average) -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.75/ea (average) and were bought back at $0.30/ea (average) -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $675!
