Buy The Dip?!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.10%
- Nasdaq 100: -1.87%
- Russel 2000: +1.96%
- Bitcoin: -16.15%
- Gold: +1.65%
- Silver: -9.06%
Stocks had a choppy but ultimately upbeat first week of February, with early jitters around big-tech spending giving way to a strong rebound into Friday. The headline moment came late in the week as the Dow pushed through 50,000 for the first time, helped by broader participation beyond mega-cap tech and a solid bounce in semiconductors. The tone by the close was simple: risk appetite is still there, even if nerves show up intraday.
On the economic front, it was a survey-heavy week with mixed but mostly constructive signals. ISM manufacturing popped back into expansion territory for the first time in a year, while ISM services stayed firmly in growth mode, though price pressures remain sticky. Labor data pointed to gradual cooling rather than a cliff. ADP private payrolls came in light, job openings fell to their lowest level in more than five years, and consumer sentiment ticked modestly higher. Nothing screamed recession, but nothing screamed overheating either.
Looking ahead to next week, the calendar gets much more market-moving. We’ll get the Employment Cost Index and import and export prices on Tuesday, the January jobs report on Wednesday, existing-home sales on Thursday, and then the main event on Friday with January CPI and real earnings. No market holidays next week, which means traders won’t have anywhere to hide if inflation or jobs surprise. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Feb 9th
None
Tuesday, Feb 10th
Morning: Coca Cola, CVS & Spotify
Evening: Cloudflare, Ford, Lyft, Robinhood & Upstart
Wednesday, Feb 11th
Morning: McDonald's, Shopify & Unity
Thursday, Feb 12th
Evening: Coinbase, Draft Kings & Pinterest
Friday, Feb 13th
Morning: Wendy's
Market Events
Monday, Feb 9th
None
Tuesday, Feb 10th
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Dec)
Wednesday, Feb 11th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Report (Jan)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Report (Jan)
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
Thursday, Feb 12th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales (Jan)
01:00 PM ET 30-Year BondAuction
Friday, Feb 13th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Jan)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Feb 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 1.37
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Feb 10th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.17
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Feb 11th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 1.09
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Feb 12th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.29
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Feb 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 2.13
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 10 for 10 times (20 for 20 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 35 Trades
February Record: 20/20 Units
Monday, Feb 2nd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $689 / $688) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $618 / $617) 🟢
Tuesday, Feb 3rd
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $697 / $698) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $629 / $630) 🟢
Wednesday, Feb 4th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $692 / $693) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $616 / $617) 🟢
Thursday, Feb 5th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $684 / $685) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $605 / $606) 🟢
Friday, Feb 6th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $680 / $679) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $598 / $597) 🟢
Times Chat Told Me I Was Stupid
681 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.90/ea and were bought back at $0.15/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,875!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $0.89/ea and were bought back at $0.30/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,475!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $0.90/ea and were bought back at $0.20/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,400!
