Ready To Rally?!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +1.07%
- Nasdaq 100: +1.13%
- Russel 2000: +0.62%
- Bitcoin: -1.20%
- Gold: +1.31%
- Silver: +9.45%
Last week, after the market was closed Monday for Washington’s Birthday, traders came back Tuesday ready to move. Stocks grinded higher through the shortened week, with the Nasdaq leading and the S&P 500 not far behind. The tone felt cautiously optimistic as investors balanced sticky inflation with signs the economy is cooling, but not cracking. Dip buyers were active, especially in tech, and volatility stayed relatively contained.
On the data front, the January Fed minutes reminded everyone that rate cuts are not a done deal. Policymakers flagged inflation risks and made it clear they want more progress before easing. We also got fresh reads on housing and manufacturing, which painted a mixed picture. Activity is slowing in some pockets, but nothing is flashing recession alarms. The overall vibe remains soft landing with a side of patience.
Looking ahead to next week, the calendar picks up. Consumer Confidence hits Tuesday, New Home Sales lands Wednesday, and we will also get updated factory and housing data throughout the week. None of it is necessarily blockbuster on its own, but taken together it will help shape expectations for the Fed’s next move. As always, rates and inflation headlines will likely matter more than anything else. It's also important to note the Nvidia will be reporting it's earnings after market close on Wednesday. As always stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Feb 23rd
Evening: Hims & Hers
Tuesday, Feb 24th
Morning: Home Depot
Evening: AMC, Cava & HP
Wednesday, Feb 25th
Morning: Hut 8
Evening: Nvidia
Thursday, Feb 26th
Morning: D Wave
Evening: Dell
Friday, Feb 27th
None
Market Events
Monday, Feb 23rd
None
Tuesday, Feb 24th
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence (Feb)
Wednesday, Feb 25th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Jan)
Thursday, Feb 26th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Feb 27th
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Jan)
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Feb)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Feb 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.79
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Feb 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 0.51
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Feb 25th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.44
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Feb 26th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 0.59
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Feb 27th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.71
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (14 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 14 Trades
February Record: 50/54 Units
Monday, Feb 16th
No Signal Produced (Market Holiday)
Tuesday, Feb 17th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $683 / $684) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $603 / $604) 🟢
Wednesday, Feb 18th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $682 / $681) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $600 / $599) 🟢
Thursday, Feb 19th
SPY Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $687 / $686) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $606 / $607) 🟢
Friday, Feb 20th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $681 / $680) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $599 / $598) 🟢
How Many Boxes I Still Have To Unpack
14 Million *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.70/ea (average) and were bought back at $0.675/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,700!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 2 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $1.10/ea (average) and were bought back at $0.30/ea (average) -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.75/ea (average) and were bought back at $0.30/ea (average) -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $675!
