Goodbye March, Hello April
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -2.12%
- Nasdaq 100: -3.20%
- Russel 2000: -0.34%
- Bitcoin: -5.88%
Last week, stocks struggled as markets wrestled with a tough mix of rising geopolitical tension and sticky inflation pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both moved lower, with tech leading the downside, while the Dow continued to lag. Oil prices stayed elevated, which kept inflation concerns front of mind and made it harder for equities to find footing. The bigger issue wasn’t just one factor, it was the combination of higher energy costs, uncertain growth, and investors trying to reprice risk all at once.
On the data side, the tone leaned softer. The S&P Global flash PMI showed U.S. business activity slowing to an 11-month low, while input prices picked back up. Construction spending for January also came in weaker. Midweek, the current account deficit narrowed more than expected, which stood out as one of the few positives. By Friday, consumer sentiment slipped to a 3-month low, with inflation expectations moving higher. At the same time, headlines around Trump and Iran kept markets on edge, with brief signs of easing tensions but no real resolution, leaving oil and risk sentiment sensitive to every update.
Looking ahead to next week, the focus shifts back to hard data. Tuesday brings Conference Board consumer confidence, Wednesday has ISM manufacturing, Thursday delivers the trade balance, and Friday is the big one with the March jobs report. That jobs print will likely set the tone for rates and equities into early April. Markets are open all week, and after a headline driven stretch, this setup could turn more data driven, with traders watching closely to see if growth is actually slowing or just cooling. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Market Events
Monday, Mar 30th
10:30 AM ET Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Tuesday, Mar 31st
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Mar)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence (Mar)
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Feb)
Wednesday, Apr 1st
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Feb)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Mar)
Thursday, Apr 2nd
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
Friday, Apr 3rd
ALL DAY Market Closed (Good Friday)
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Report (Mar)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Mar)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Mar 30th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 74%
- Profit Factor: 8.75
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Mar 31st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 0.80
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Apr 1st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 71%
- Profit Factor: 1.95
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Apr 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 2.37
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Apr 3rd)
- Market Closed (Good Friday)
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (16 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 20 Trades
March Record: 44/48 Units
Monday, Mar 23rd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $655 / $654) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $588 / $587) 🟢
Tuesday, Mar 24th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $649 / $648) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $581 / $580) 🟢
Wednesday, Mar 25th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $662 / $663) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $593 / $594) 🟢
Thursday, Mar 26th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $655 / $656) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $586 / $587) 🟢
Friday, Mar 27th
No Signal Produced
Trump Market Whiplash Count
13,982 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
These CCS's were sold at $2.15/ea and were bought back at $1.00/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,150!!!
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $0.65/ea and were bought back at $0.25/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,000!!!
