Degen Cowboy
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +3.56%
- Nasdaq 100: +4.45%
- Russel 2000: +4.62%
- Bitcoin: +9.02%
Last week, stock bounced hard with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all putting together their best stretch in months as traders leaned risk-on again. A big part of that came from easing tension headlines around Iran, along with oil pulling back from earlier spikes. Trump was active throughout the week, talking about potential cooperation with Iran while also floating tougher tariffs on countries supporting them, so geopolitics stayed front and center. By Friday, things cooled a bit with markets finishing mixed, but overall the tone for the week was clearly stronger.
On the data side, inflation is still not going away quietly. The FOMC minutes showed the Fed is increasingly concerned about sticky inflation, especially with energy and tariffs in the mix. CPI came in hot for March, driven largely by energy, while core inflation was more contained. PCE earlier in the week told a similar story. At the same time, consumer sentiment dropped sharply, which added a bit of caution into the end of the week and helped explain why the rally lost some steam on Friday.
Looking ahead to next week, there is a solid but not overwhelming lineup. Tuesday brings PPI, Wednesday has import and export prices along with the Fed’s Beige Book, and Thursday rounds things out with industrial production and capacity utilization. Notably, retail sales won’t hit next week after being pushed back, so one of the usual big catalysts is off the table. Markets will likely stay focused on inflation trends and any new headlines out of the Middle East as the next driver. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Apr 13th
Morning: Goldman Sachs
Tuesday, Apr 14th
Morning: BlackRock, Citi, J&J, JPMorgan & Wells Fargo
Wednesday, Apr 15th
Morning: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley & PNC
Thursday, Apr 16th
Morning: Charles Schwab, Pepsi Co & TSMC
Evening: Netflix
Friday, Apr 17th
None
Market Events
Monday, Apr 13th
10:0 AM ET Existing Home Sales (Mar)
Tuesday, Apr 14th
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Mar)
Wednesday, Apr 15th
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 PM ET Fed Beige Book
Thursday, Apr 16th
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
Friday, Apr 17th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Apr 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 0.24
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Apr 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 2.20
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Apr 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.33
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Apr 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 1.57
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Apr 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 75%
- Profit Factor: 1.65
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 2 for 6 times (6 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~33%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 2 Trades
April Record: 10/18 Units
Monday, Apr 6th
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, Apr 7th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $658 / $659) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $588 / $589) 🔴
Wednesday, Apr 8th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, Apr 9th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $676 / $677) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $607 / $608) 🔴
Friday, Apr 10th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $679 / $678) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $610 / $609) 🟢
Random Market Whipsaw Prompted By Iran News
93,771 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed. Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $3.85/ea and were bought back at $3.63/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $675!!!
Both missed :(
These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and were bought back at $0.15/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,050!!!
These PCS's were sold at $1.30/ea and were bought back at $0.30/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!!!
