Monster Moves May
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.13%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.38%
- Russel 2000: -2.69%
- Bitcoin: -1.41%
Last week, the market notched a new record high, but it definitely wasn’t smooth sailing. Stocks pushed higher early as the AI trade kept carrying momentum, with the Nasdaq and S&P hanging near record territory for most of the week. Then inflation data hit, yields climbed, and traders started getting nervous about oil again. A lot of that came from the latest Iran headlines after Trump publicly rejected Iran’s response to a proposed peace framework, which immediately pushed crude prices back higher and brought inflation fears right back into focus.
The biggest story was Tuesday’s CPI report, which came in hotter than expected and showed inflation heating back up to 3.8% year over year. Energy prices did a lot of the damage as gas prices surged alongside the Middle East tensions. Wednesday’s PPI report added more fuel to the inflation conversation, while Thursday’s retail sales data showed the consumer is still spending even with prices staying elevated. Earnings were a mixed bag, but AI-related names continued to dominate attention. Cisco impressed investors with stronger AI demand commentary, while Applied Materials helped keep semiconductor momentum alive. Overall, the market still wants to believe in the AI-led rally, but higher yields and rising oil prices are making things more uncomfortable.
Looking ahead to next week, it's a bit lighter on economic data, but there’s still plenty for traders to watch. The FOMC meeting minutes land Wednesday, followed by housing starts, building permits, and S&P Global flash PMI data on Thursday. Earnings season also keeps rolling with reports from Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Walmart, and Nvidia, which will probably end up being the biggest event of the week for the broader market. Investors will also keep one eye on any new Trump headlines tied to Iran or China after this week’s geopolitical tension pushed energy markets back into the spotlight. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, May 18th
None
Tuesday, May 19th
Morning: Home Depot
Evening: CAVA
Wednesday, May 20th
Morning: Lowe's & Target
Evening: Nvidia
Thursday, May 21st
Morning: John Deere, Nio & Walmart
Evening: WeBull & Zoom
Friday, May 22nd
None
Market Events
Monday, May 18th
None
Tuesday, May 19th
None
Wednesday, May 20th
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 PM ET Fed's FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, May 21st
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (May)
Friday, May 22nd
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (May)
10:00 AM ET US Leading Economic Indicators (Apr)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, May 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 1.83
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, May 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.58
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, May 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61%
- Profit Factor: 1.62
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, May 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.37
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, May 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 1.29
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 5 for 6 times (10 for 12 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~83%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 3 Trades
May Record: 10/12 Units
Monday, May 11th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $736 / $735) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $708 / $707) 🟢
Tuesday, May 12th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $738 / $739) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $711 / $712) 🟢
Wednesday, May 13th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, May 14th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $742 / $741) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $713 / $712) 🟢
Friday, May 15th
No Signal Produced
Diapers Changed
14,887,194 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
