Summer Liftoff
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.65%
- Nasdaq 100: +2.44%
- Russel 2000: +4.65%
- Bitcoin: +3.93%
Last week, markets spent most of the time trying to shake off the prior week’s tech-led stumble, and by Friday the bulls had mostly pulled it off. The S&P 500 gained about 0.6% on the week, small caps ripped higher, and breadth looked much healthier than the headline indexes suggested. Tech was choppy, Apple slipped after WWDC, but semis bounced hard early in the week and kept the AI trade alive.
The macro story was all about inflation and geopolitics. CPI rose 0.5% in May and 4.2% year over year, while PPI jumped 1.1%, with energy doing a lot of the damage as Iran tensions kept oil front and center. Trump helped calm the tape late in the week by backing away from strikes and talking up progress toward an Iran deal. On the company side, Oracle posted a strong cloud-driven quarter, but investors still had questions about spending, while SpaceX stole the spotlight with a massive IPO that finished its first day up roughly 19%.
Looking ahead to next week, it's a short but loaded one. The Fed meets June 16–17, with the rate decision, updated projections, and press conference on Wednesday. Also on deck: import/export prices Tuesday, retail sales and business inventories Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims Thursday. Markets are closed Friday, June 19, for Juneteenth. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Market Events
Monday, June 15th
None
Tuesday, June 16th
None
Wednesday, June 17th
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (May)
02:00 PM ET FOMC Fed Interest Rate Decision
02:30 PM ET Fed Chair Warsh Conference
Thursday, June 18th
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
Friday, June 19th
ALL DAY Market Closed (Juneteenth)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, June 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 71%
- Profit Factor: 5.88
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, June 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.52
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, June 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 0.93
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, June 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.62
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, June 19th)
- Market Closed (Juneteenth)
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 8 times (12 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~75%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 0 Trades
June Record: 24/28 Units
Monday, June 8th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $747 / $748) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $725 / $726) 🟢
Tuesday, June 9th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $747 / $748) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $725 / $726) 🟢
Wednesday, June 10th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $739 / $740) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $712 / $713) 🟢
Thursday, June 11th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $733 / $734) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $708 / $709) 🔴
Friday, June 12th
No Signal Produced
Evals Blown
76,374,882 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both missed -- Trump pump.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
