Summertime Bulls
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.93%
- Nasdaq 100: +2.60%
- Russel 2000: +0.85%
- Bitcoin: -0.10%
Markets packed a lot into a short, four-day trading week, with exchanges closed Friday for Juneteenth. Stocks started hot after Trump said the U.S. and Iran had signed a framework to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil lower and lighting a fire under tech, airlines, and other fuel-sensitive names. The rally cooled midweek after the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% but signaled a more hawkish path, before buyers stepped back in Thursday. For the week, the Nasdaq led, while the S&P 500, Dow, and Russell 2000 all finished higher.
The economic data was mixed but still pointed to a resilient economy with some inflation pressure. Industrial production edged up 0.1% in May, housing starts sank to a six-year low, import prices jumped 1.9%, and retail sales beat expectations with a 0.9% gain. Jobless claims eased to 226,000, keeping the labor-market story steady. Company-wise, Intel ripped after Trump said Apple would work with it on U.S.-made chips, while Accenture dropped after trimming the top end of its revenue outlook.
Next week brings a busy macro slate: S&P Global flash U.S. PMIs on Tuesday, new home sales on Wednesday, then a packed Thursday with jobless claims, durable goods, Q1 GDP’s third estimate, and May personal income and PCE inflation. Friday wraps with wholesale inventories and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. With the Fed now sounding less friendly and the Iran/Hormuz story still driving oil and inflation expectations, the market will be watching whether the data confirms the rally or gives Powell’s crew more reason to stay hawkish. As always, respect your risk and stick to your trading plan. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Market Events
Monday, June 22nd
None
Tuesday, June 23rd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing Services PMI (Jun)
Wednesday, June 24th
10:00 AM ET New Homes Sales (May)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, June 25th
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Indec MoM & YoY (May)
08:30 AM ET GDP QoQ (Q1)
08:30 AM ET Durable Goods Orders MoM & YoY (May)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
Friday, June 26th
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, June 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.38
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, June 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.44
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, June 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 39%
- Profit Factor: 0.71
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, June 25th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 1.12
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, June 26th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61%
- Profit Factor: 1.16
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 4 times (8 for 8 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 4 Trades
June Record: 32/36 Units
Monday, June 15th
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, June 16th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $756 / $757) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $745 / $746) 🟢
Wednesday, June 17th
No Signal Produced -- FOMC Meeting
Thursday, June 18th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $742 / $741) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $732 / $731) 🟢
Friday, June 19th
No Signal Produced -- Market Closed
E
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* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
