The Tides Are Shifting
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.95%
- Nasdaq 100: -4.24%
- Russel 2000: +1.05%
- Bitcoin: -5.47%
Last week, Wall Street had a rough go of it, with the AI trade finally showing some cracks. The S&P 500 slipped 2%, the Nasdaq dropped 4.6%, while the Dow actually gained 0.6% and small caps held up better. The pressure was mostly in mega-cap tech and semis, even after Micron delivered a strong AI-driven earnings beat.
The economic data was mixed, but not disastrous. Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, May PCE inflation came in hot at 0.4% month over month, core PCE rose 0.3%, durable goods orders fell 4.5%, and final June consumer sentiment improved to 49.5 as gas prices cooled. Geopolitics stayed front and center too: Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire near the Strait of Hormuz, but oil still slid below $70 as the market focused more on easing supply fears than the latest flare-up.
Looking ahead to next week, it's packed into a shortened holiday schedule. Tuesday brings JOLTS and Conference Board consumer confidence, Wednesday has ISM manufacturing and construction spending, Thursday brings the June jobs report, weekly jobless claims, and factory orders, and Friday the NYSE is closed for Independence Day observed. On the earnings side, Nike, Constellation Brands, General Mills, FactSet, and AeroVironment are the names to watch. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Market Events
Monday, June 29th
None
Tuesday, June 30th
08:30 AM ET Chicago PMI (June)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence (June)
10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job Openings (May)
Wednesday, July 1st
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (June)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (June)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, July 2nd
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (June)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (June)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
Friday, July 3rd
ALL DAY Market Closed (Independence Day)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, June 29th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 1.18
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, June 30th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 2.31
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, July 1st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 79%
- Profit Factor: 5.85
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, July 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 83%
- Profit Factor: 20.09
- Bias: Very Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, July 3rd)
- Market Closed (Independence Day)
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 4 times (10 for 10 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 8 Trades
June Record: 42/46 Units
Monday, June 22nd
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, June 23rd
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, June 24th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $733 / $732) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $710 / $709) 🟢
Thursday, June 25th
No Signal Produced
Friday, June 26th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $726 / $725) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $702 / $701) 🟢
New Piper-Based Shirts
1 (It's super high fashion)*
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
