'MURICA!!!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +1.76%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.72%
- Russel 2000: +0.18%
- Bitcoin: +4.20%
Last week, stocks kept the summer rally alive in the holiday-shortened week, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow pushing higher while small and mid caps lagged. The week started with a tech-led bounce, helped by AI enthusiasm, deal activity, and Alphabet joining the Dow. By Thursday, softer labor data helped keep rate anxiety contained, and the Dow hit another record close before markets shut Friday, July 3, for Independence Day.
The economic calendar was light but important. May JOLTS showed job openings holding near 7.6 million, ISM manufacturing stayed in expansion at 53.3, and S&P Global’s final manufacturing PMI cooled to 53.9. The big one was Thursday’s June jobs report: payrolls rose just 57,000, with prior months revised lower, reinforcing the “cooling but not cracking” labor-market narrative. On the geopolitical front, Trump and Iran remained in focus after both sides moved toward halting attacks and restarting talks, helping calm some oil-risk fears. In company news, Tesla beat Q2 delivery expectations but still sold off, while Comcast’s planned NBCUniversal/Sky spinoff and broader deal chatter helped sentiment.
Looking ahead to next week, the calendar picks back up but does not include CPI or PPI yet. Monday brings S&P Global’s final services PMI and ISM Services for June. Tuesday has the May trade balance. Wednesday brings May wholesale inventories, the minutes from the June FOMC meeting, and May consumer credit. Thursday has weekly jobless claims and June existing home sales. Earnings are still early-cycle, but PepsiCo, Levi Strauss, WD-40, and Delta Air Lines are the names to watch before the bigger bank reports begin the following week. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Market Events
Monday, July 6th
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Jun)
Tuesday, July 7th
None
Wednesday, July 8th
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
02:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, July 9th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales (Jun)
01:00 PM ET 30-Year Bond Auction
Friday, July 10th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, July 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 45%
- Profit Factor: 0.75
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, July 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 55%
- Profit Factor: 1.87
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, July 8th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 59%
- Profit Factor: 0.92
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, July 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 55%
- Profit Factor: 1.89
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, July 10th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 41%
- Profit Factor: 0.37
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (16 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 16 Trades
June Record: 50/54 Units
July Record: 8/8 Units
Monday, June 29th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $732 / $731) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $705 / $704) 🟢
Tuesday, June 30th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $740 / $739) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $723 / $722) 🟢
Wednesday, July 1st
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $742 / $741) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $725 / $724) 🟢
Thursday, July 2nd
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $752 / $753) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $731 / $732) 🟢
Friday, July 3rd
No Signal Produced -- Market Closed
America Birthdays
250 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
