BTFD?!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.55%
- Nasdaq 100: -4.13%
- Russel 2000: -0.86%
- Bitcoin: -0.37%
Last week, stocks hit their first real speed bump in a while as profit-taking swept through many of the market's biggest AI names. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Dow slipped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq-100 was hit the hardest, -4.1%, as semiconductor stocks led the selloff. TSMC delivered another strong quarter and reinforced the long-term AI story, but that wasn't enough to stop the rotation. Earnings season also got underway with solid reports from the major banks, while Netflix's outlook left investors wanting more.
The week's economic data painted a mixed but generally encouraging picture. June CPI and PPI both came in softer than expected, suggesting inflation continues to cool, while retail sales and a drop in weekly jobless claims pointed to an economy that's still holding up well. Geopolitics remained on investors' radar too, as renewed fighting involving Iran pushed oil prices higher and added another layer of uncertainty heading into the weekend.
Next week shifts the focus back to earnings. Alphabet, Tesla, General Motors, and Intel all report, with AI spending and corporate guidance likely to set the tone. On the economic calendar, Monday brings the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, Thursday features weekly jobless claims, and Friday includes the first look at July's S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs along with June new home sales. There are no Fed meetings or market holidays, so expect earnings to remain the main driver. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, July 20th
Morning: AMC
Tuesday, July 21st
Morning: GM
Wednesday, July 22nd
Evening: Alphabet, IBM & Tesla
Thursday, July 23rd
Morning: American Airlines
Evening: Intel
Friday, July 24th
Morning: American Express & Verizon
Market Events
Monday, July 20th
None Scheduled
Tuesday, July 21st
None Scheduled
Wednesday, July 22nd
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, July 23rd
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claim
Friday, July 24th
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Jul)
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Jun)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, July 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.61
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, July 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 29%
- Profit Factor: 0.50
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, July 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61%
- Profit Factor: 1.77
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, July 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.07
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, July 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.59
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 10 times (16 for 20 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~80%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 8 Trades
July Record: 36/40 Units
Monday, July 13th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $750 / $749) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $712 / $711) 🔴
Tuesday, July 14th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $748 / $747) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $714 / $713) 🟢
Wednesday, July 15th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $756 / $757) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $725 / $726) 🟢
Thursday, July 16th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $750 / $749) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $706 / $705) 🟢
Friday, July 17th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $740 / $739) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $686 / $685) 🟢
Account Blown Due To Trump Tweets
17,992 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These CCS's were sold at $1.55/ea and were bought back at $1.00/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,200!!!
