Hello, August!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +1.05%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.52%
- Russel 2000: -0.40%
- Bitcoin: -1.96%
Last week, Wall Street took the scenic route higher. SPX gained 1.0%, NDX added 0.5%, and RTY finished essentially flat after a sharp Fed-day selloff gave way to a two-day rebound. Amazon jumped nearly 16% Friday after strong cloud results helped calm AI-spending fears, while Apple sank about 7% on a softer outlook. Microsoft’s strong report also helped restart the AI trade, but the week still felt more like a megacap rescue than a clean risk-on breakout.
The economy gave the Fed little reason to relax. Q2 GDP slowed to a 1.5% annualized pace, July consumer confidence slipped to 90.8, and June core PCE rose just 0.1% for the month but remained 3.3% higher than a year ago. The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with all three dissenters wanting a quarter-point hike, while employment costs increased 0.9% in Q2 and 3.4% year over year. Iran added another inflation wildcard: oil fell early as Trump paused strikes for diplomacy, then jumped when fighting resumed and reports surfaced that the U.S. and Israel were considering attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.
Next week is a full five-day NYSE session, and the calendar is genuinely busy. Monday brings final S&P Global and ISM manufacturing PMIs plus construction spending; Tuesday has June trade, JOLTS and factory orders; Wednesday brings final S&P Global services and composite PMIs plus ISM services; Thursday has preliminary Q2 productivity and unit labor costs plus wholesale trade; and Friday closes with the July jobs report. Earnings worth circling include Palantir Monday after the bell, AMD Tuesday after the bell and Disney Wednesday before the open. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, August 3rd
Evening: Palantir & Snap
Tuesday, August 4th
Morning: Caterpillar, McDonald's & Pfizer
Evening: AMD & SpaceX
Wednesday, August 5th
Morning: Disney, Riot, Shopify & Uber
Evening: Sandisk & Wester Digital
Thursday, August 6th
Morning: D Wave
Evening: Airbnb, Draft Kings & Rigetti
Friday, August 7th
Morning: Wendy's
Market Events
Monday, August 3rd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Jul)
Tuesday, August 4th
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)
Wednesday, August 5th
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Jul)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, August 6th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, July 7th
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Jul)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, August 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.28
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, August 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.64
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, August 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.48
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, July 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 1.91
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, August 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 1.30
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 5 for 6 times (10 for 12 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~83%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 3 Trades
July Record: 56/64 Units
Monday, July 27th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $746 / $747) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $693 / $694) 🟢
Tuesday, July 28th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, July 29th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, July 30th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $740 / $741) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $685 / $686) 🟢
Friday, July 31st
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $737 / $736) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $679 / $678) 🟢
Hedge Funds Bodied By Citadel
1 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
These CCS's were sold at $0.50/ea and were bought back at $0.25/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $625!!!
