New Heights
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.36%
- Nasdaq 100: +1.09%
- Russel 2000: +1.13%
- Bitcoin: -2.95%
Stocks stayed near record highs this past week, with SPX up about 0.4%, NDX gaining 1.1%, and RTY up roughly 1.1%. Cooler CPI and PPI data helped ease some Fed concerns and pushed the SPX to a fresh record Thursday. Friday was a little shakier after retail sales fell 0.6%, but small caps still held up well.
Iran remained a major wildcard. Talks with the U.S. made little progress, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed, and oil climbed on the week. Trump also turned up the rhetoric around Iran and higher gas prices. The yen weakened again despite recent intervention efforts, while expectations grew that the BOJ could hike rates in September. On the company side, AI was still the main theme, with strong demand commentary from CoreWeave, Nebius, Cisco, and Nvidia. Reddit also popped on news it is joining the S&P 500.
Next week is lighter on macro, but there are still a few important events. Tuesday brings housing starts, building permits, import/export prices, and industrial production. The July FOMC minutes hit Wednesday afternoon, followed by the Philly Fed survey and Conference Board Leading Economic Index on Thursday. Earnings will also be worth watching, with Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Walmart, and Deere all reporting. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, August 17th
None
Tuesday, August 18th
Morning: Home Depot & Klarna
Wednesday, August 19th
Morning: Lowe's & Target
Thursday, August 20th
Morning: Alibaba, John Deere & Walmart
Friday, August 21st
None
Market Events
Monday, August 17th
None
Tuesday, August 18th
None
Wednesday, August 19th
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, August 20th
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, August 21st
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Aug)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, August 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 2.29
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, August 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.16
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, August 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.53
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, August 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 0.57
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, August 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 0.96
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (16 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 19 Trades
August Record: 32/32 Units
Monday, Aug. 3rd
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $776 / $777) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $726 / $727) 🟢
Tuesday, Aug. 11th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $775 / $776) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $724 / $725) 🟢
Wednesday, Aug. 12th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, Aug. 13th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $774 / $773) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $724 / $723) 🟢
Friday, Aug. 14th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $779 / $780) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $735 / $736) 🟢
Trades Lost In Dark Pool
94 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
