Bitcoin Is ALIVE!!!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -1.43%
- Nasdaq 100: -2.45%
- Russel 2000: -1.65%
- Bitcoin: +24.38%
Last week, stocks finally took a breather this week as higher Treasury yields and rising oil prices weighed on risk assets. SPX fell 1.4%, NDX dropped about 2.5%, and RTY lost 1.6%. The economic data was mixed. Housing starts came in weak, while service-sector activity remained solid, keeping the broader growth picture intact. The main issue for markets was that stronger growth, higher oil and sticky inflation concerns kept pressure on yields.
Iran was a big part of that inflation story. Trump threatened tougher economic penalties on Iran and countries doing business with Tehran, while continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz helped push Brent more than 6% higher for the week. Earnings were mixed, with Walmart showing some signs of a more cautious consumer. BTC was one of the biggest standouts, rallying more than 20% and briefly nearing $80K as strong ETF demand, better liquidity and a friendlier U.S. crypto backdrop helped drive the move.
Looking ahead to next week, there are plenty of potential catalysts. Tuesday brings Consumer Confidence and new-home sales, while Wednesday is packed with Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, personal income and spending, durable goods and NVDA earnings. Jackson Hole begins Thursday, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking Friday. Between PCE, NVDA and the Fed, there should be no shortage of action for SPX, NDX, RTY and BTC. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, August 24th
None
Tuesday, August 25th
Evening: Zoom
Wednesday, August 26th
Evening: Crowdstrike, Nvidia & Salesforce
Thursday, August 27th
Morning: Best Buy, Dollar General & Dollar Tree
Evening: Affirm, Iren, Marvell & Ulta
Friday, August 28th
None
Market Events
Monday, August 24th
None
Tuesday, August 25th
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence (Aug)
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Jul)
Wednesday, August 26th
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Jul)
08:30 AM ET GDP QoQ (Q2)
08:30 AM ET Durable Goods MoM & YoY (Jul)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, August 27th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, August 28th
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, August 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.03
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, August 25th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 2.04
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, August 26th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.58
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, August 27th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 1.11
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, August 28th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 0.90
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 4 times (8 for 8 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 23 Trades
August Record: 40/40 Units
Monday, Aug. 17th
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, Aug. 18th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Aug. 19th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $768 / $767) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $712 / $711) 🟢
Thursday, Aug. 20th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Aug. 21st
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $764 / $763) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $708 / $707) 🟢
Times I Thought About Megan
0*
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
