Rates Get Hiked
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.08%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.94%
- Russel 2000: -1.51%
- Bitcoin: +4.75%
Markets were all over the place this week, but big tech held up. SPX finished basically flat, NDX gained about 0.9%, and RTY fell roughly 1.5%. The main event was the Fed, which raised rates 25 bps to 3.75% to 4.00% and kept the door open to another hike later this year.
The data stayed pretty firm. Retail sales jumped 1.2% in August, industrial production was flat, and housing was mixed. Oil stayed above $100 as Iran and regional shipping risks remained a major focus. Trump said he hoped the conflict was moving closer to an end, but energy markets stayed cautious. Lennar also reported a sharp profit drop, while Berkshire announced Warren Buffett will become chairman emeritus and Howard Buffett will take over as chairman.
Next week is lighter, but there are still a few things worth watching. Tuesday has Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Wednesday brings S&P Global flash PMIs, and Thursday is the big day with jobless claims, new-home sales, and Trump’s scheduled meeting with Xi Jinping. Friday wraps things up with durable-goods orders. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Market Events
Monday, September 21st
None
Tuesday, September 22nd
None
Wednesday, September 23rd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Sep)
Thursday, September 24th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Aug)
Friday, Septmber 25th
08:30 AM ET Durable Goods MoM & YoY (Aug)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Sep)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, September 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 38%
- Profit Factor: 0.37
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, September 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 39%
- Profit Factor: 0.87
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, September 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 39%
- Profit Factor: 0.55
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, September 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46%
- Profit Factor: 0.53
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, September 25th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.02
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 3 for 4 times (6 for 8 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~75%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 1 Trade
September Record: 18/20 Units
Monday, Sept. 14th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $757 / $756) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $702 / $701) 🟢
Tuesday, Sept. 15th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Sept. 16th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, Sept. 17th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Sept. 18th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $762 / $763) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $720 / $721) 🔴
Times I Wish I Bought More NKE
83,401 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
SPY hit & QQQ missed.
These CCS's were sold at $0.80/ea and were bought back at $0.30/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,500!!!
