Trick or Treat
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.47%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.79%
- Russel 2000: +2.09%
- Bitcoin: -0.52%
Wall Street had a choppy week, with the major indices heading in different directions. The S&P 500 slipped 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 fell roughly 0.8%, and the Russell 2000 rallied 2%. Tech took the biggest hit as investors started questioning the massive costs behind the AI boom. Meta’s $135 billion to $145 billion spending plans raised some eyebrows, while semiconductor stocks struggled. Tesla beat revenue expectations, but that wasn't enough to shake the broader concerns surrounding tech valuations.
On the economic front, October's flash PMI showed business activity was still growing, although inflation remained a concern. Housing starts fell 5.2%, while leading economic indicators were flat. Meanwhile, tensions between Trump and Iran continued to shake up energy markets, pushing Brent crude above $116 per barrel. Trump suggested the conflict could end quickly, but uncertainty around oil prices remains. Elsewhere, reports of a potential SpaceX wireless carrier weighed on AT&T and T-Mobile.
Next week is shaping up to be a big one. Tuesday brings durable goods orders, new home sales, and consumer confidence. Wednesday features the Fed's rate decision, followed by Q3 GDP and PCE inflation data on Thursday. Friday wraps things up with the employment cost index. Earnings will also be in full swing, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Intel, ExxonMobil, and Chevron all on deck. Between the Fed, inflation, earnings, and geopolitical headlines, there's no shortage of potential market movers. As always, stick to your plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, October 26th
Morning: Verizon
Tuesday, October 27th
Morning: Coca Cola, Boeing, SoFi & UPS
Evening: Robinhood & Visa
Wednesday, October 28th
Evening: Alphabet, FedEx & Microsoft
Thursday, October 29th
Morning: Caterpillar, Lilly, Mastercard
Evening: Amazon, Coinbase, Intel, Reddit, Roblox, Starbucks & Strategy
Friday, October 30th
Morning: Chevron & Exxon Mobil
Market Events
Monday, October 26th
None
Tuesday, October 27th
08:30 AM ET Durable Goods (Sep)
10:00 AM ET New Homes Sales (Sep)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Wednesday, October 28th
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales (Sep)
02:00 PM ET FOMC Interest Rate Decision
02:30 PM ET Chair Warsh Press Conference
Thursday, October 29th
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Sep)
08:30 AM ET GDP QoQ (Q3)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, October 30th
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Oct)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, October 26th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 38%
- Profit Factor: 0.34
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, October 27th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.76
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, October 28th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 62%
- Profit Factor: 2.80
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, October 29th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 59%
- Profit Factor: 1.33
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, October 30th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.80
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 4 times (8 for 8 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 21 Trades
October Record: 40/40 Units
Monday, Oct. 19th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $765 / $764) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $716 / $715) 🟢
Tuesday, Oct. 13th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Oct. 14th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, Oct. 15th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Oct. 16th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $758 / $757) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $701 / $700) 🟢
Apple Cider Donuts Consumed
All of them *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
