The AI Trade Is Getting Carved Up
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -2.68%
- Nasdaq 100: -4.91%
- Russel 2000: -2.11%
- Bitcoin: -2.86%
Wall Street had a brutal week, with the AI trade taking a serious beating. Democrats flipped control of Congress in Tuesday's midterms, adding fresh uncertainty around regulation and the massive AI spending boom. Thursday was especially ugly, with SPX plunging 4.4% and NDX dropping 6.4%. Friday brought some relief, but the damage was done. SPX finished the week down 2.7%, NDX lost roughly 4.3%, and RTY slipped 2.1%. The market's biggest winners are suddenly under some serious pressure.
Meanwhile, the economy isn't showing many signs of slowing down. October's jobs report crushed expectations with 165,000 new jobs, while unemployment held steady at 4.1%. Great for the economy, but not exactly what traders hoping for lower interest rates wanted to see. AMD reported a massive 97% jump in data-center revenue, although even strong AI earnings couldn't shake the broader selloff. Trump and Iran also remained in the headlines, with ongoing tensions and diplomatic developments keeping oil traders on edge.
Looking ahead to next week, inflation takes center stage. October CPI drops Tuesday, followed by PPI on Friday, both at 8:30 AM ET. CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials are also reporting earnings, putting the AI trade back in focus. Wednesday is Veterans Day, but the stock market remains open. With December rate-hike expectations climbing and tech stocks getting hammered, next week's inflation data could make things very interesting. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Earnings
Monday, November 9th
Evening: Take-Two Interactive
Tuesday, November 10th
Morning: D-Wave & Honda
Evening: CoreWeave & Rigetti
Wednesday, November 11th
Morning: Rumble
Thursday, November 12th
Evening: Cisco & Gemini
Friday, November 13th
None
Market Events
Monday, November 9th
None
Tuesday, November 10th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Oct)
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
Wednesday, November 11th
None
Thursday, November 12th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
01:00 PM ET 30-Year Bond Auction
Friday, November 13th
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Oct)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, November 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 59%
- Profit Factor: 1.88
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, November 10th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.16
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, November 11th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 55%
- Profit Factor: 1.62
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, November 12th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 55%
- Profit Factor: 1.04
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, November 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.23
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 6 times (8 for 12 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~66%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 4 Trades
November Record: 8/12 Units
Monday, Nov. 2nd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $758 / $757) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $693 / $692) 🔴
Tuesday, Nov. 3rd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $752 / $751) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $683 / $682) 🟢
Wednesday, Nov. 4th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, Nov. 5th
No Signal Produced
Friday, Nov. 6th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $733 / $732) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $654 / $653) 🟢
Times Market Makers Hunted My Stop
188 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.50/ea and were bought back at $0.10/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!!!
