What's up, fuckers!
Sorry about my French. This is my first official newsletter -- I have no clue what I'm doing. I really hope you enjoy what I can offer. You wouldn't want me to cry in shower? Would you...
Would you?
Anyway, the idea of me writing this is to share my trades, related market information and personal thoughts. This will without a doubt evolve over time, which means I would love your feedback. My goal is to provide as much value as I can, so don't hesistate to reachout to me.
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (March 2nd)
- Trades (Years Tested): 25
- Bull Win Percentage: 40%
- Profit Factor: 0.68
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value
$10,613 (+6.13%)
Closed Position(s)
None
New Position(s)
SPY Call Credit Spread (5) April 6th
- Sold: $414 & Bought: $417 --> Credit: $0.55/ea
- Max Return: $55/ea & Max Risk: $245/ea
- Profit Odds: 81%
Reasoning: Recent economic reports haven't favored the hawks. The seasonality currently favors the bears. The technicals are looking heavy. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPY is trading in the mid 380s soon. I placed this particular trade when the SPY & DXY were both rising but major tech stocks were falling off. To me, this was a sign that the SPY was about to fall in the short term. My goal for this trade is a +50% gain.
Current Position(s)
COIN Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Sold: $85 & Bought: $90 --> Credit: $0.50/ea
- Max Return: $50/ea & Max Risk: $450/ea
- Profit Odds: 86%
NFLX Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Sold: $347.50 & Bought: $350 --> Credit: $0.38/ea
- Max Return: $38/ea & Max Risk: $212/ea
- Profit Odds: 90%
META Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Sold: $190 & Bought: $192.5 --> Credit: $0.33/ea
- Max Return: $33/ea & Max Risk: $217/ea &
- Profit Odds: 87%
SPY Call Credit Spread (3) March 17th
- Sold: $409 & Bought: $412 --> Credit: $0.56/ea
- Max Return: $56/ea & Max Risk: $244/ea
- Profit Odds: 83%
TSLA Call Credit Spread (2) March 17th
- Sold: $215 & Bought: $216.67 --> Credit: $0.50/ea
- Max Return: $50/ea & Max Risk: $117/ea
- Profit Odds: 72%
TSLA #2 Call Credit Spread (5) March 17th
- Sold: $230 & Bought: $231.67 --> Credit: $0.27/ea
- Max Return: $27/ea & Max Risk: $140/ea
- Profit Odds: 84%
QQQ Call Credit Spread (5) March 24th
- Sold: $313 & Bought: $315 --> Credit: $0.38/ea
- Max Return: $38/ea & Max Risk: $162/ea
- Profit Odds: 85%
SPY #2 Call Credit Spread (4) March 31st
- Sold: $415 & Bought: $417 --> Credit: $0.42/ea
- Max Return: $42/ea & Max Risk: $158/ea
- Profit Odds: 88%
TSLA #3 Call Credit Spread (3) March 31th
- Sold: $245 & Bought: $250 --> Credit: $0.70/ea
- Max Return: $70/ea & Max Risk: $430/ea
- Profit Odds: 87%
Notes
Max Return (Credit Spreads): The credit recieved when creating the positon. This is achieved when you get to the expiration date and the price is below the sold contract for a Call Credit Spread and above the sold contract for a Put Credit Spread.
Max Risk (Credit Spreads): The difference between the spread's two strikes minus the credit recieved when the position was created.
Breakeven (Credit Spreads): The sold strike plus the credit for CCS and the strike minus the credit for PCS.
============================================================================== RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future. ==============================================================================
SPY Hit & QQQ Missed
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and all expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!
