January Sets Another Record
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.38%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.92%
- Russel 2000: +2.32%
- Bitcoin: +5.51%
Last week, markets mostly went sideways. Indexes tested highs early and then cooling off into the end of the week. It felt like a classic pause. Small caps held up better than expected, big tech picked its spots, and rates stayed in focus as the 10-year hovered in the low-to-mid 4s. Earnings season got rolling, but overall price action said traders were still waiting for a clearer macro signal before committing.
The economic data was the main driver. December CPI showed inflation continuing to cool without collapsing, which was enough to keep the soft-landing narrative alive. Headline prices rose 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, while core CPI came in at 0.2% and 2.6%. Retail sales for November surprised to the upside, pointing to a consumer that is still spending, and industrial production for December jumped 0.4%, reinforcing the idea that growth is slowing but not stalling.
Looking ahead to next week, the reporting is lighter but still important. The focus shifts to housing and economic momentum, starting with pending home sales on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday, and the S&P Global flash PMIs on Friday. Don't forget that markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. With a shortened week and sentiment-sensitive data, expect quick reactions, thin liquidity, and the usual tendency for traders to change their minds at least once. As always, respect your risk and stick to your trading plan. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Jan 19th
None
Tuesday, Jan 20th
Morning: 3M
Evening: Interactive Brokers, Netflix & United
Wednesday, Jan 21st
Morning: J&J
Thursday, Jan 22nd
Morning: P&G
Evening: Capital One & Intel
Friday, Jan 23rd
Morning: SLB
Market Events
Monday, Jan 19th
ALL DAY Market Closed (MLK Day)
Tuesday, Jan 20th
None
Wednesday, Jan 21st
08:30 AM ET Trump Speaks
Thursday, Jan 22nd
08:30 AM ET GDP (Q3)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 AM ET PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Nov)
Friday, Jan 23rd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Jan 19th)
- Market Closed All Day
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Jan 20th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.02
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Jan 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 1.27
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Jan 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 43%
- Profit Factor: 1.02
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Jan 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57%
- Profit Factor: 1.26
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 9 for 10 times (18 for 20 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~90%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 3 Trades
January Record: 36/40 Units
Monday, Jan 12th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $690 / $689) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $622 / $621) 🟢
Tuesday, Jan 13th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $692 / $691) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $623 / $622) 🟢
Wednesday, Jan 14th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $692 / $693) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $624 / $625) 🟢
Thursday, Jan 15th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $692 / $691) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $623 / $622) 🔴
Friday, Jan 16th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $695 / $696) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $626 / $627) 🟢
Times Piper Manipulated The Market
27 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at ~$0.85/ea and were bought back at ~$0.40/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!!!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 2 total units!
