Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly
Well, that market RUD was pretty nuts.
The overall market was in a pop, drop and then pop again mode. I hope the whipsaw didn't mess you up too bad. The recent earnings were all essentially a mixed bag. Like yesterday, we gapped down and worked our way up the gap fill (and then some). Unlike yesterday, the push upward didn't hold. When the bond market closed at 2pm ET, there was a giant vomit. I wish I knew specifically why. It could be banking concerns. It could be inflation concerns. It could even be because Elon publicly stated he was worried about the economy. Fuck, for all I know, it could be a combo of the three. All I really know is that we are waiting for more earnings reports, economic decisions and there will be tons of chop in the meantime.
Market Events: Friday, April 21st
09:45 AM S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI
09:45 AM S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI
04:35 PM Fed Gov Lisa Cook Speaks
Earnings: April 17th - 21st
Monday: Charles Schwab & State Street
Tuesday: Bank of America, Bank of NY Mellon, Goldman Sachs, Interactive Brokers, J&J, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, Silvergate Cap & United Airlines
Wednesday: Heineken, IBM, Las Vegas Sands, L’Oreal, Morgan Stanley, Nasdaq & Tesla
Thursday: Alaska Air, American Airlines, American Express, AT&T, Blackstone, Philip Morris, Taiwan Semiconductor, Union Pacific & Virtu Financial
Friday: P&G & Schlumberger
Note: This is NOT the full list -- I included the names of companies that are popular within the Goonie Community.
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (April 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.77
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Current Account Value (April 20th)
Daily Realized P&L: +$0
YTD Realized P&L: +$505
Closed Position(s)
None
Current Position(s)
SPY Iron Condor (3) April 28th
- $419/$421 Call Spread --> Credit: $38
- $399/$397 Put Spread --> Credit: $34
- Max Return: $72 & Max Risk: $128
- Current Value: $45
- Profit Target: $30
- Profit Odds: 82%
SPY Iron Condor (3) May 5th
- $418/$419 Call Spread --> Credit: $37
- $403/$402 Put Spread --> Credit: $20
- Max Return: $57 & Max Risk: $43
- Current Value: $57
- Profit Target: $20
- Profit Odds: 68%
SPY Iron Condor (3) May 5th
- $422/$423 Call Spread --> Credit: $23
- $400/$399 Put Spread --> Credit: $18
- Max Return: $41 & Max Risk: $59
- Current Value: $38
- Profit Target: $15
- Profit Odds: 80%
SPY Iron Condor (3) May 5th
- $424/$426 Call Spread --> Credit: $46
- $397/$395 Put Spread --> Credit: $37
- Max Return: $83 & Max Risk: $117
- Current Value: $53
- Profit Target: $30
- Profit Odds: 85%
SPY Iron Condor (3) May 12th
- $426/$428 Call Spread --> Credit: $40
- $399/$397 Put Spread --> Credit: $25
- Max Return: $65 & Max Risk: $135
- Current Value: $63
- Profit Target: $30
- Profit Odds: 85%
New Position(s)
None
My Thoughts
Another day of chop, chop and more chop. We violently went nowhere, so I made no moves. I'm sitting on my hands until a trend shows itself. Patience will pay.
(I do wish I kept my TSLA puts... fml)
Thanks for reading -- Much Love!
Notes
Max Return (Credit Spreads): The credit received when creating the position. This is achieved when you get to the expiration date and the price is below the sold contract for a Call Credit Spread and above the sold contract for a Put Credit Spread.
Max Risk (Credit Spreads): The difference between the spread's two strikes minus the credit received when the position was created.
Breakeven (Credit Spreads): The sold strike plus the credit for CCS and the strike minus the credit for PCS.
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These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and were bought back at $0.25/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $875!!!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at ~$0.85/ea and were bought back at ~$0.40/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!!!
