Touchdown Time!
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.80%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.59%
- Russel 2000: -2.33%
- Bitcoin: -3.10%
The holiday-shortened week was choppy, with stocks getting hit before bouncing Friday. The SPX fell about 0.8%, the NDX slipped roughly 0.6%, and the RTY lagged with a drop of about 2.3%. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields did most of the damage, as WTI pushed near $100 and the 10-year yield briefly approached 5%. Friday’s rebound helped, but inflation and rates are clearly back in focus.
That showed up in the data too. August PPI rose 0.4% for the month and 5.4% year over year, while CPI climbed 0.4% and 3.4% annually. Core CPI was also a little hotter than expected, increasing the odds of a Fed move next week. Oil stayed elevated as tensions with Iran continued to pressure Gulf shipping. On the company side, Oracle posted another strong AI-driven quarter, Apple unveiled its foldable iPhone Duo, and Adobe beat expectations but gave investors a softer outlook.
Looking ahead to next week, it's all about the Fed. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rate decision, new projections and dot plot coming Wednesday afternoon. The current expectation is a 25bps rate increase. Retail sales and import/export prices are also due Wednesday morning, followed by housing starts and permits Thursday. Friday brings industrial production and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Trading Discord is LIVE!!! (https://bit.ly/GoonieDiscord)
Market Events
Monday, September 14th
None
Tuesday, September 15th
None
Wednesday, September 16th
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM & YoY (Aug)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 PM ET FOMC Interest Rate Decision
02:30 PM ET Fed Chair Warsh Speech
Thursday, September 17th
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Indec (Sep)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Septmber 18th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, September 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 55%
- Profit Factor: 1.46
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, September 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 55%
- Profit Factor: 0.83
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, September 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 69%
- Profit Factor: 2.08
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, September 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 41%
- Profit Factor: 0.60
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, September 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 38%
- Profit Factor: 0.81
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 4 for 4 times (6 for 6 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join me today!!! Click Here!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 41 Trades
September Record: 12/12 Units
Monday, Sept. 7th
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, Sept. 8th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, Sept. 9th
SPY Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $765 / $766) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $720 / $721) 🟢
Thursday, Sept. 10th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $756 / $755) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $706 / $705) 🟢
Friday, Sept. 11th
No Signal Produced
Times My Fantasy Football Team Screwed Me
1 for 1*
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and were bought back at $0.25/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $875!!!
Both of these trades missed.Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at ~$0.85/ea and were bought back at ~$0.40/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!!!
