The New Era of Crypto
Aloha,
Welcome to the new age of cryptocurrency! The BIG news of the past week shined a bright light on Bitcoin -- The SEC finally approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. If you've been diamond handing digital gold over the past few years or more, a massive congrats to you. I hope the coming years are even more exciting.
Beyond internet monies, there were various other developments over the past week you should know about. There were two inflation reports, CPI & PPI. The data came in hot (higher than expected) and cool (lower than expected) respectively. To make the party even more exciting, Earnings Season officially commenced as well. A handful of major financial players report their performance. Thus far, the results have been a mixed bag. It will take a bit more clarity to know if the bulls or the bears have the upper hand.
Looking ahead there are various macroeconomic and earnings reports dropping in the upcoming, shortened trading week (details posted below). Stay frosty!
Peace,
Matt
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, Jan. 15th
ALL DAY Market Closed for MLK Day
Tuesday, Jan. 16th
09:00 PM ET China GDP Report (YoY) (Q4)
Wednesday, Jan. 17th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI (YoY)
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
Thursday, Jan. 18th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
11:00 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Friday, Jan. 19th
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales (Dec)
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
None
Tuesday
AM: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley & PNC
PM: IBKR
Wednesday
AM: Charles Schwab
PM: Discover
Thursday
AM: TSMC
Friday
AM: Ally & SLB
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Jan. 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.69
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Jan. 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.51
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Jan. 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.71
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Jan. 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.59
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Jan. 19th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.61
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 5 for 5 times (16 for 16 total units) this past week (Signal Accuracy: ~100%).
FUCKING CRUSHED IT!!!
The Piper bot is running red hot -- I hope you've been to utilize the signal to improve your own degen trading. I'm very happy with the recent performance. It won't be out in the immediate future, but I want you to know I’m working on a new 0 DTE trading system, the Roo bot. Stay tuned!
Current Streak: 12
January Record: 30/32
Monday Jan. 8th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $468 / $467) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $397 / $396) 🟢
Tuesday Jan. 9th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $471 / $470) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $401 / $400) 🟢
Wednesday Jan. 10th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $473 / $472) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $405 / $404) 🟢
Thursday Jan. 11th
SPY CALL Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $478 / $479) 🟢
QQQ CALL Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $411 / $412) 🟢
Friday Jan. 12th
SPY CALL Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $475 / $474) 🟢
QQQ CALL Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $408 / $407) 🟢
Top 3 Charts of Interest
MSFT
Microsoft finally broke out! Thus far it's paying nicely. My trailing stop is currently set to $376. I'm currently looking for a test of $400.
TSLA
Tesla plummeted to the recently posted target of $225. I personally didn't take this trade (I missed the entry), but I if I had, my trailing stop would be $232, and I would be targeting $205.
COIN
BREAKDWON ALERT! If Coinbase doesn't quickly recapture $135, I'd be looking for a fall to $118.
Bonus Chart: BTC
Bitcoin recently cratered but bounced at $42k (aka the 48 EMA). If this support level holds, I'd be watching for a nice bounce trade. This would obviously be invalidated if Bitcoin were to close below $41k.
Times I Puked On The Stair Stepper
0.4 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
