This Market Is WILD!
Hei,
I'm getting tired of reporting to all your degens the market hit another new all-time high, but here we are. Just smile & wave, boys!
The major news of last weeks was Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony. He didn't say this too directly, but he strongly indicated we are getting close to rate cuts. The market loved the idea of loose monetary policy, which is we continued our tip higher. We also got an update on the national unemployment. The data reading came in higher than expected. I know this seems like a negative, but don't forget that the Fed is looking for the unemployment rate to increase. In a paradoxical way, more people being unemployment was bullish for the stock market.
Looking ahead, we have a handful of earnings you might be interested in this upcoming week. They are detailed below, but I think there is more exciting things to consider. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday all have highly impactful reports. We will be getting both more inflation readings and the results of key bond auctions. Historically, these have had a considerable influence on the intraday price action. Stay frosty!
Ha det,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, Mar. 11th
None
Tuesday, Mar. 12th
08:30 AM ET CPI (YoY) (Feb)
08:30 AM ET CPI (MoM) (Feb)
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
Wednesday, Mar. 13th
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:00 PM ET 30-Year Bond Auction
Thursday, Mar. 14th
08:30 AM ET PPI (MoM) (Feb)
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, Mar. 15th
None
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
PM: Oracle
Tuesday
AM: Kohl's
Wednesday
AM: Dollar Tree & Petco
Thursday
AM: Dick's & Dollar General
PM: Adobe & ULTA
Friday
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Mar. 11th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 4.31
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Mar. 12th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 0.29
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Mar. 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 0.57
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Mar. 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 40%
- Profit Factor: 1.68
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Mar. 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 68%
- Profit Factor: 1.10
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 10 times (16 for 22 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~80%
Piper took a stumble the conclude the week. Overall, she is crushing the entire year, but I do find Friday to be problematic. I don't mind that she lost. I mind that she lost on a 5/5 (bullish) confidence day. From a statistics standpoint, Friday was extremely abnormal for a variety of reasons. There is a chance this was a bad beat, but I want to do some research to see if it's avoidable in the future. I'll let you know what I find!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 0 Trades
March Record: 20/26 Units
Monday Mar. 4th
SPY CALL Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $512 / $511) 🟢
QQQ CALL Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $444 / $443) 🟢
Tuesday Mar. 5th
SPY CALL Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $511 / $512) 🟢
QQQ CALL Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $441 / $442) 🟢
Wednesday Mar. 6th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $508 / $507) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $437 / $436) 🟢
Thursday Mar. 7th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $511 / $510) 🟢
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $440 / $439) 🟢
Friday Mar. 8th
SPY PUT Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $515 / $514) 🔴
QQQ PUT Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $445 / $444) 🔴
Top 5 Charts of Interest
Bitcoin
BTC hit a new all-time high! Congrats to all of you who had the balls to hold! Personally, I think the price goes even higher. I'm a big fan of the "high flag" consolidation. I'll be looking for an open range breakout in the near future.
Nvidia
NVDA has been ripping higher and higher for countless days, weeks, and months. Most recently, there was a bearish engulfing candle. This is commonly a sign of buyer exhaustion. I don't think it's smart to bet against such a monster, but I do believe it will need some consolidation before another upside move.
Tesla
TSLA is a pivotal price point. If it bounces, I'll be looking for the upside gap fil to $187ish. If this support cannot hold, I'd be expecting the selloff to continue to $165.
Meta
META is continuing to dominate -- Nothing but higher highs and higher lows. I'm expecting a brief period of consolidation. After that, I'll be watching closely to try to ride the next leg to the upside.
Apple
APPL is getting crushed. I strongly believe there is potential for the price action to lead downward to the $165 support. The bounce or breakdown at the point could have implications on the entire market. Watch this one closely!
Bonus Chart: Gold
Similar to digital gold, actual gold is exploding to the heavens. I don't like chasing, so I personally wouldn't be a buyer here. However, if you got your rocket ticket at the end of February when I first started talking about the potential, huge congrats to you!
Times I Ate Hamburger Helper
0 * (My fiancée won't allow me)
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
