We Are So Back!
What's Up,
The market is crushing it -- I hope you are too!!! Out of last week's five trading days, we bagged five green daily bars. In fact, the market's recent performance was so strong that we are only 0.50% away from a new all-time high in the S&P 500. How long will it last? I have absolutely no clue, but I will be riding the trend as long as it persists.
You're probably wondering what was announced that caused the market to be so bullish. The accurate, yet confusing, answer is nothing. There were a handful of macroeconomic announcements, but nothing that was massively impactful. The same could be said about individual earnings announcements. We are in a strange market phase where the lack of bearish news is seemingly being interpreted as bullish.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not complaining at all. Piper's signals hit with perfection. I obviously would love for the trend to continue, but I'm not holding my breath on that outcome. This upcoming week has considerable number of events we should all pay attention to. There are various economic announcements, Fed speeches, and earnings reports.
As always, I'll take what the market offers. I'm not inherently bullish or bearish. I simply want to ride the trend as long as I can. With that in mind, the current trend is clearly bullish, so I'm heading into the week with a bit of optimism.
All the key details for the upcoming week are posted below -- Godspeed.
Let's Do This Thing,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, May 13th
09:00 AM ET Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Speaks
09:00 AM ET Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Speaks
Tuesday, May 14th
08:30 AM ET Producer Price Index YoY & MoM
09:10 AM ET Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speaks
10:00 AM ET Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Wednesday, May 15th
08:30 AM ET Consumer Price Index YoY & MoM
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
12:00 PM ET Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Speaks
03:20 PM ET Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
Thursday, May 16th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
12:00 PM ET Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Speaks
01:00 PM ET New York Fed President John Williams Speaks
03:50 PM ET Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks
Friday, May 17th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Apr)
10:00 AM ET US Leading Economic Indicators
10:15 AM ET Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
None
Tuesday
Morning: Alibaba, Home Depot & Sony
Evening: Rumble
Wednesday
Morning: Hut 8
Evening: Cisco
Thursday
Morning: JD, John Deere, Under Armour & Walmart
Evening: Take Two Interactive
Friday
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, May 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.83
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, May 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 2.25
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, May 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 1.22
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, May 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 3.47
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, May 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 36%
- Profit Factor: 0.20
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (15 for 15 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Piper is back to crushing it! I'm very happy to see variance is starting to return to our favor. In the coming weeks, I'll start incorporating the results and related information of the new premium scalping strategy. We ride at dawn!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 11 Trades
May Record: 25/27 Units
Monday May 6th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $513 / $512) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $436 / $435) 🟢
Tuesday May 7th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $516 / $515) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $439 / $438) 🟢
Wednesday May 8th
SPY Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $518 / $519) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $442 / $443) 🟢
Thursday May 9th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $516 / $515) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $438 / $437) 🟢
Friday May 10th
No Signal
Piper's Feet Attack While I'm Sleeping
88 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
