Red, White & Blue
Hey hey hey,
Say hello to new highs (again) and say goodbye to the week, month, and quarter!
Here are the key weekly performance stats:
- S&P 500: -0.05%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.22%
- Bitcoin: -5.94%
I hope all is well in your world -- I hope you're enjoying the start to your summer! May the Market Gods be blessing you with tendies. We are now officially halfway through the year. This is the perfect time to analyze what has and hasn't been working for you. Find the discipline within yourself to cut the bad habits and double down on what's been working.
I'm particularly fond of this time of the year due to the seasonal bias of the market. According to decades worth of data, July is commonly dominated by the bulls. Obviously, there is no way to guarantee the upcoming price action, but I'm liking my odds hanging out in the bull camp. I'll be looking for July to build off the various reports that came out this past week. For those of you who may have missed it, there was a strong Consumer Sentiment report, a better-than-expected GDP report, and an inflation report didn't come in hot.
This upcoming week is bound to be an exciting one. Another inflation report will be released. Fed Chair Powell will be speaking. There is an Unemployment Report. And, to top it all off, there is a market holiday. All the pertinent details are below -- Make sure to mark your calendar with the important stuff. As always, the trend is your friend. Trade what the market gives you not what you want to happen. Godspeed.
Until Next Time,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, July 1st
09:45 AM ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun)
Tuesday, July 2nd
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jun)
09:30 AM ET Fed Chair Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (May)
Wednesday, July 3rd
MARKET CLOSES AT 1:00 PM ET
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, July 4th
MARKET CLOSED ALL DAY
Friday, July 5th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Jun)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
08:30 AM ET Avg. Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
Upcoming Earnings
Not much going on with respect to earnings -- We are not in earnings season.
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, July 1st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 80%
- Profit Factor: 5.69
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, July 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 0.93
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, July 3rd)
- MARKET CLOSES AT 1:00 PM ET
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.83
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, July 4th)
- MARKET CLOSED ALL DAY
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, July 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 2.45
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 10 times (15 for 19 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~80%
The performance is right at expectations -- I hope you're enjoying the spoils!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 0 Trades
June Record: 57/63 Units
Monday June 24th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $548 / $549) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $480 / $481) 🟢
Tuesday June 25th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $542 / $541) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $475 / $474) 🟢
Wednesday June 26th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $543 / $542) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $478 / $477) 🟢
Thursday June 27th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $545 / $544) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $480 / $479) 🟢
Friday June 28th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $546 / $545) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $481 / $480) 🔴
Tarot Card Market Prediction Accuracy
100% *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
SPY Hit & QQQ Missed
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and all expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!
