Goodbye August, Hello September
Yo yo yo,
August came in like a lion and left like a lamb. We went from massive tradable ranges to chop city in only a couple of weeks. Fortunately for us, the price compression seems to be coming to an end. Here are a few key things you should know as things progress.
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.28%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.78%
- Russel 2000: -0.14%
- Bitcoin: -7.76%
The final week of the month contained two major macroeconomic developments. The U.S. GDP was reported to have a steady growth rate of 2.8%, which was in line with expectations. This indicates that the U.S. economy continued to grow at a pace close to its long-term trend, supported by consumer spending despite a lower savings rate and a slowing labor market. The PCE inflation report was also a much-anticipated update. The reading came in slighlty cool. This is a postive sign that inflation is still trending in the right direction.
The S&P 500 managed to close about 5% higher by the end of the month. Stocks experienced significant volatility. There was a notable recovery after an initial drop, influenced by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike which led to a temporary unwind in the carry trade affecting markets globally. This eventual recovery was broad-based, suggesting widespread market participation beyond just the large-cap tech stocks.
Moving forward, the Fed's interest rate decision at the September 18th FOMC meeting will be the must-see event of the month. Price action has been compressed for effectively two weeks. I can't make any promises, but it feels as if there is a breakout, or breakdown, on the close horizon. As always, stick to your trading plan & respect your risk. Godspeed.
Peace,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, September 2nd
ALL DAY Market Closed (Labor Day)
Tuesday, September 3rd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug)
Wednesday, September 4th
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Jul)
02:00 PM ET Fed Beige Book
Thursday, September 5th
08:15 AM ET ADP Employment (Aug)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug)
11:00 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Friday, September 6th
08:30 AM ET US Unemployment Rate (Aug)
08:30 AM ET Avg. Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug)
08:45 AM ET New York Fed President Williams Speaks
11:00 AM ET Fed Governor Waller Speaks
Upcoming Earnings
Monday, September 2nd
None
Tuesday, September 3rd
Evening: GitLab
Wednesday, September 4th
Morning: Dick's
Evening: C3.AI
Thursday, September 5th
Morning: Nio
Evening: Broadcom & DocuSign
Friday, September 6th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, September 2nd)
- Market Closed (Labor Day)
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, September 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.19
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, September 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 1.40
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, September 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 42%
- Profit Factor: 0.70
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, September 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.23
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 10 times (16 for 20 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~80%
Piper's historic streak has come to an end. After 28 glorious trades, her perfection has come to an end. Here's to her next run of dominance!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 2 Trades
August Record: 72/80 Units
Monday, August 26th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $563 / $564) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $480 / $481) 🟢
Tuesday, August 27th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $558 / $557) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $472 / $471) 🟢
Wednesday, August 28th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $562 / $563) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $477 / $478) 🟢
Thursday, August 29th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $559 / $558) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $472 / $471) 🔴
Friday, August 30th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $560 / $559) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $474 / $473) 🟢
Times Piper Puked On Me
1 -- Low count, but horrible*
This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
