Here Comes October!
Brothers,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.57% (New High Achieved)
- Nasdaq 100: +0.89%
- Russel 2000: -0.56%
- Bitcoin: +4.08%
The stock market experienced a solid bullish trend, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closing higher, marking new record highs. This uptick was driven by several factors including the announcement of major stimulus in China. Economic data during this period showed mixed signals. Manufacturing PMI indicated softness, though it wasn't significant enough to cause major growth concerns. The major macroeconomic highlights were the cooler-than-expected inflation report and the beat on consumer sentiment. Both of these positive updates added fuel to the bullish rocket.
Peace,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, September 30th
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Sep)
Tuesday, October 1st
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI (Sep)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Sep)
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)
Wednesday, October 2nd
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
Thursday, October 3rd
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Sep)
Friday, October 4th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Sep)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
08:30 AM ET Avg. Hourly Earnings (Sep)
Upcoming Earnings
Monday, September 30th
Morning: Carnival
Tuesday, October 1st
Evening: Nike
Wednesday, October 2nd
Evening: Levi's
Thursday, October 3rd
None
Friday, October 4th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, September 30th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 37.5%
- Profit Factor: 0.25
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, October 1st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61.5%
- Profit Factor: 1.78
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, October 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 46.2%
- Profit Factor: 0.82
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, October 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 73.1%
- Profit Factor: 4.25
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, October 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 69.2%
- Profit Factor: 1.08
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 8 times (12 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~75%
This wasn't Piper's best week, but she was still green. Onto the next one!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 4 Trades
September Record: 51/62 Units
Monday, September 30th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $568 / $567) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $481 / $480) 🟢
Tuesday, September 24th
SPY Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $571 / $572) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $485 / $486) 🔴
Wednesday, September 25th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $569 / $568) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $484 / $483) 🟢
Thursday, September 26th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $575 / $576) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $494 / $495) 🟢
Friday, September 27th
No Signal Produced
Solid Trading Days These Past Week
0 -- My trading was straight garbage *
This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
