New Highs Achieved!!!
Hey Doodies,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +1.15% (New High)
- Nasdaq 100: +1.24%
- Russel 2000: +0.96%
- Bitcoin: +0.69%
Recently, the CPI for September showed a 0.2% month-over-month increase, matching the previous month but was higher than anticipated, with core CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. The make the situation a bit more questionable, both the PPI and the Michigan Inflation expectations came in hotter than expected. This data has led to concerns about persistent inflation, which will have clear implications on November's FOMC meeting. Don't forget! The economy is not fine. Among many macroeconomic themes, the consumer sentiment report was reported to be lower than anticipated.
Now here is the really crazy part. Even with all this uncertainty, the overall market just hit another new all-time high. Please don't forget that the economy and the stock market are related, but they are distinct entities. I agree the economy is in a questionable state but guess what?! Stonks are still cruising higher. Trade what the market gives you -- Don't let your personal bias get in the way of evident price trends.
Looking forward, we have a bit of a quiet week from a macroeconomic report perspective. I hope this leads to price action being king with no major announcement surprises. It should be noted that we officially in earnings seasons. Some of your favorites are going to be moving very soon! Details below. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, October 14th
ALL DAY Bond Market Closed (Columbus Day)
03:00 PM ET Fed Reserve Governor Waller Speaks
Tuesday, October 15th
01:00 PM ET Fed Governor Kugler Speaks
Wednesday, October 16th
None Scheduled
Thursday, October 17th
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI YoY & MoM
08:15 AM ET ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales (Sep)
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, October 18th
08:30 AM ET Housing Starts
08:30 AM ET Building Permits
12:10 PM ET Fed Reserve Governor Waller Speaks
Upcoming Earnings
Monday, October 14th
None
Tuesday, October 15th
Morning: Bank of America, Charles Schwab, Citi, Goldman Sachs, J&J, UnitedHealth & Walgreens
Evening: United Airlines
Wednesday, October 16th
Morning: ASML & Morgan Stanley
Evening: Discover
Thursday, October 17th
Morning: TSMC
Evening: Netflix
Friday, October 18th
Morning: American Express
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, October 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61.5%
- Profit Factor: 1.66
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, October 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 53.8%
- Profit Factor: 1.30
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, October 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61.5%
- Profit Factor: 2.22
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, October 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 57.7%
- Profit Factor: 0.82
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, October 18th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.48
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 10 times (19 for 23 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~80%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 8 Trades
October Record: 35/39 Units
Monday, October 7th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $570 / $569) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $484 / $483) 🔴
Tuesday, October 8th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $569 / $568) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $483 / $482) 🟢
Wednesday, October 9th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $572 / $571) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $487 / $486) 🟢
Thursday, October 10th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $574 / $573) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $489 / $488) 🟢
Friday, October 11th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $575 / $574) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $490 / $489) 🟢
Times I Wrote My Vows
0 -- I really need to write them*
This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
