My Completely Real Wife
Greetings,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.86%%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.22%
- Russel 2000: +1.98%
- Bitcoin: +9.45%
My wedding was on Friday, so my mind was on other things rather than the market. I wasn't paying much attention, so I have nothing too insight to say. I'll leave you with this:
Prices go up, price go down. You can try your best to predict what is going to happen. You'll be right with roughly 50% accuracy. Predicting isn't how you make money. Risk management is how you make money. If you control your downside, the upside gains will take care of themselves. The challenge with making money trading truly has nothing to do with solving some sort of market-based puzzle, it's a personal battle. Are you disciplined enough to follow through on doing what you already know you should do? I'm aware this is all way easier said than done, but it's paramount you understand this dynamic. As a trader, you are one personal battle away from both financial freedom and financial ruin. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
IMPORTANT NOTE: I'll be on my honeymoon next week, so there will be no newsletter. Everything will return to normal the week after.
Market Events
Monday, October 21st
08:55 AM ET Dallas Fed President Logan Speaks
10:00 AM ET US Leading Economic Indicators
05:05 PM ET Kansas City Fed President Schmid Speaks
06:40 PM ET San Francisco Fed President Daly Speaks
Tuesday, October 22nd
10:00 AM ET Philadelphia Fed President Harker Speaks
Wednesday, October 23rd
09:00 AM ET Fed Governor Bowman Speaks
10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:00 PM ET 20-Year Bond Auction
02:00 PM ET Fed Beige Book
Thursday, October 24th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM ET S&P Global PMI
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales
01:00 PM ET 5-Year TIPS Auction
Friday, October 25th
10:00 AM ET Durable Goods Orders
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
Upcoming Earnings
Monday, October 21st
Evening: Logitech & SAP
Tuesday, October 22nd
Morning: 3M, GE, GM, RTX & Verizon
Evening: Enphase
Wednesday, October 23rd
Morning: AT&T, Boeing & Coca Cola
Evening: IBM & Tesla
Thursday, October 24th
Morning: American Airlines, Southwest & UPS
Evening: Texas Roadhouse
Friday, October 25th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, October 21st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61.5%
- Profit Factor: 1.83
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, October 22nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 61.5%
- Profit Factor: 1.88
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, October 23rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 42.3%
- Profit Factor: 1.29
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, October 24th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 34.6%
- Profit Factor: 0.22
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, October 25th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 50%
- Profit Factor: 0.82
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (16 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 16 Trades
October Record: 51/55 Units
Monday, October 14th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $580 / $579) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $494 / $493) 🟢
Tuesday, October 15th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $585 / $586) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $499 / $500) 🟢
Wednesday, October 16th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $578 / $577) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $487 / $486) 🟢
Thursday, October 17th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $581 / $580) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $491 / $490) 🟢
Friday, October 18th
No Signal
Times I Got Married
1*
This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
