EXPLOSIVE GAINS!!!
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +4.75%
- Nasdaq 100: +5.48%
- Russel 2000: +8.74%
- Bitcoin: +10.22%
Last week, the stock market saw both new all-time highs and notable volatility driven by the presidential election. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 200 surged as Donald Trump reclaimed the presidency, sparking "Trump Trades." Treasury yields also rose, which signals investors are optimistic about potential deregulation and tax cuts but wary of inflation risks from possible tariffs. Global sentiment was further shaped by the Federal Reserve's rate decision and expectations of a stimulus package from China.
Various economic data released showed a mixed picture: unemployment claims pointed to labor market resilience, supporting investor confidence, while the dollar strengthened, reaching 84.10, as policy shifts were anticipated. Bitcoin hit a record high, reflecting investor interest in alternative assets amid potential policy changes. It should also new noted that the president elect's commentary has been supportive surrounding cryptocurrencies.
Looking ahead, key focus areas include market reactions to election-related policy announcements and how interest rate-sensitive sectors respond to the Fed’s decisions. China's stimulus could impact commodity markets and trade, while inflation trends remain crucial for bond yields and stock valuations. As always, respect your risk. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, November 11th
ALL DAY Bond Market Closed (Veteran's Day)
Tuesday, November 12th
10:00 AM ET Fed Governor Waller Speakes
10:15 AM ET Richmond Fed President Barkin Speaks
05:00 PM ET Philadelphia Fed President Harker Speaks
Wednesday, November 13th
08:30 AM ET CPI YoY & MoM (Oct)
09:45 AM ET Dallas Fed President Logan Speaks
01:00 PM ET St. Louis Fed President Musalem Speaks
01:30 PM ET Kansas Fed President Schmid Speaks
Thursday, November 14th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM ET PPI YoY & MoM (Oct)
03:00 PM ET Fed Chair Powell Speaks
04:14 PM ET New York City Fed President Williams Speaks
Friday, November 15th
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales (Oct)
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
Evening: Live Nation
Tuesday
Morning: Home Depot & Shopify
Evening: Cava, Spotify & Occidental Petroleum
Wednesday
Morning: Hut 8
Evening: Cisco
Thursday
Morning: Disney & JD.com
Evening:
Friday
Morning: Alibaba
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, November 11th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 31%
- Profit Factor: 0.12
- Bias: Very Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, November 12th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 1.42
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, November 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 58%
- Profit Factor: 2.07
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, November 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 54%
- Profit Factor: 1.09
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, November 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 73%
- Profit Factor: 4.08
- Bias: Very Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (15 for 15 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 16 Trades
November Record: 15/15 Units
Monday, November 4th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $569 / $568) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $484 / $483) 🟢
Tuesday, November 5th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $570 / $569) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $487 / $486) 🟢
Wednesday, November 6th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $585 / $584) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $499 / $498) 🟢
Thursday, November 7th
No Signal (FOMC Decision)
Friday, November 8th
SPY Put Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $596 / $595) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $512 / $511) 🟢
Times Donald Trump Has Been Elected President
2 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 2 total units!
For some stupid reason, I didn't have faith in Piper and cut my position early. Not sure why I was being so paper handed, but it cost me. I sold these CCS's at $1.05/ea and bought them all back at $1.50/ea -- This means my realized loss was $675.
This trade was a run-of-the-mill revenge trade due to being titled. As it normally goes, I was in a hole and made it worse. I sold these PCS's at $0.75/ea and was forced to buy them back at $3.20/ea -- This means my realized loss was $6,125.
