Santa Is Coming To Town
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +1.18%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.78%
- Russel 2000: +1.30%
- Bitcoin: -1.55%
Last week, stocks posted a mixed performance. Early in the week, equities rallied as Treasury yields declined, driven by optimism over potential moderation in Federal Reserve rate policies. The Dow and the S&P 500 reached a record high, buoyed by strength in sectors like solar energy and housing, while tech stocks lagged mid-week amid concerns about valuations and global uncertainties.
On the economic front, the FOMC minutes emphasized a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts, keeping markets focused on inflation trends. Key economic data released during the week included updates to the GDP growth rate, which showed resilience, and the PCE Price Index, which indicated persistently sticky inflation. These data points underscored the complexity of the Federal Reserve’s balancing act between curbing inflation and supporting economic growth.
Looking ahead to the first week of December, we should focus on employment data, particularly the November jobs report. Additionally, the ISM manufacturing index will provide updates on industrial activity. These indicators will be critical in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy decisions in December and early 2025. As always, respect your risk and stick to your plan. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, December 2nd
09:45 AM ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Nov)
Tuesday, December 3rd
10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job Openings (Oct)
Wednesday, December 4th
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Nov)
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:45 PM ET Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Thursday, December 5th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, December 6th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Nov)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
08:30 AM ET Avg. Hourly Earnings (Nov)
Upcoming Earnings
Monday
None
Tuesday
Evening: Salesforce
Wednesday
Morning: Chewy
Thursday
Morning: Dollar General & Kroger
Evening: DocuSign, Lululemon & Ulta
Friday
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, December 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.68
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, December 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.97
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, December 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.37
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, December 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.49
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, December 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 3.01
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 6 times (12 for 12 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 42 Trades
November Record: 59/59 Units
Monday, November 25th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $595 / $594) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $503 / $502) 🟢
Tuesday, November 26th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $598 / $597) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $507 / $506) 🟢
Wednesday, November 27th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $602 / $603) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $509 / $510) 🟢
Thursday, November 28th
No Signal Produced (Market Closed for Thanksgiving)
Friday, November 29th
No Signal Produced (Market Closed @ 1:00pm ET)
Times Piper Tried To Steal An Entire Turkey
3.2 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
