Giddy Up, Rudolph!
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.87%
- Nasdaq 100: +3.28%
- Russel 2000: -1.22%
- Bitcoin: +2.46%
Last week, the market achieved another new all-time higher. Early in the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs due to optimism about potential rate cuts, bolstered by positive manufacturing data. However, later in the week, Chair Powell highlighted the need for cautious monetary policy adjustments, causing a bit of volatility. By Friday, stronger-than-expected job growth for November, with 227,000 jobs added, contrasted with a slight rise in unemployment to 4.2%, supporting expectations for a modest Fed rate cut later this month. This had the net effect of sending us to the moon once again.
Economically, the week saw signs of stabilization, with inflation cooling and yields easing. The labor market remained resilient, suggesting continued strength in consumer spending. However, concerns over federal deficits and restrained foreign demand for U.S. Treasurys continued to linger. Powell specifically called out the unstainable path of our debt growth when speaking with the NYT.
Looking ahead, key events next week include market reactions to further inflation data (CPI & PPI) and preliminary consumer sentiment reports. Additionally, attention will focus on Federal Reserve signals about the timing and scale of potential rate adjustments as markets prepare for the central bank's December 18th meeting. As always, respect your risk and stick to your trading plan. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, December 9th
None
Tuesday, December 10th
01:00 PM ET 3-Year Note Auction
Wednesday, December 11th
08:30 AM ET CPI MoM & YoY (Nov)
08:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
01:00 PM ET 10-Year Note Auction
Thursday, December 12th
08:15 AM ET ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
08:30 AM ET PPI MoM & YoY (Nov)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
01:00 PM ET 30-Year Bond Auction
Friday, December 13th
None
Upcoming Earnings
Monday, December 9th
Evening: C3.AI & Oracle
Tuesday, December 10th
Evening: GameStop
Wednesday, December 11th
Morning: Macy's
Evening: Adobe
Thursday, December 12th
Evening: Broadcom & Costco
Friday, December 13th
None
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, December 9th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 0.81
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, December 10th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 60%
- Profit Factor: 0.88
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, December 11th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.77
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, December 12th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.34
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, December 13th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.23
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 10 for 10 times (14 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 52 Trades
December Record: 14/14 Units
Monday, December 2nd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $602 / $601) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $510 / $509) 🟢
Tuesday, December 3rd
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $601 / $600) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $513 / $512) 🟢
Wednesday, December 4th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $604 / $603) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $519 / $518) 🟢
Thursday, December 5th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $605 / $604) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $521 / $520) 🟢
Friday, December 6th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $607 / $606) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $522 / $521) 🟢
$100's Shot From The Money Gun
420 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
