New Year, Same Degeneracy
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.65%
- Nasdaq 100: +0.75%
- Russel 2000: +0.21%
- Bitcoin: -3.68%
Last week, markets saw a mixed performance in a holiday-shortened week. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq achieved modest gains, but all declined on Friday due to year-end tax selling and profit-taking, particularly in tech stocks.
Economic data was mixed, with the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 74.0 and existing home sales reaching a nine-month high. However, the Conference Board reported declining consumer confidence for December, highlighting economic uncertainties.
Next week, we should watch for the impact of the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and anticipate shifts in the Federal Open Market Committee's composition for 2025. Geopolitical developments, specifically tariffs, and corporate earnings will also influence market sentiment heading into the new year. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Market Events
Monday, December 30th
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Dec)
10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales (Nov)
Tuesday, December 31st
None
Wednesday, January 1st
ALL DAY Happy New Year!
Thursday, January 2nd
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, January 3rd
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing (Dec)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, December 30th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 1.60
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, December 31st)
- Bull Win Percentage: 42%
- Profit Factor: 0.59
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, January 1st)
- Market Closed All Day (Happy New Year!)
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, January 2nd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.03
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, January 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 64%
- Profit Factor: 0.94
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (14 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 17 Trades
December Record: 59/65 Units
Monday, December 23rd
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $587 / $586) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $515 / $514) 🟢
Tuesday, December 24th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $595 / $594) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $524 / $523) 🟢
Wednesday, December 25th
No signal -- Merry Christmas!!!
Thursday, December 26th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $597 / $596) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $526 / $525) 🟢
Friday, December 27th
SPY Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $598 / $599) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $527 / $528) 🟢
Max Apex Payout Achieved
1 (Fucking finally!) *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 6 total units!
SPY missed & QQQ hit
The Trump-China-Trade announcement from the NYT knocked me out of my position. The CCS's were sold at $1.80/ea and I was forced to buy them backl at $4.40 -- This means my realized loss was $3,120 :(
The hedge did exactly what hedge plays are meant to do. It balanced me out! These PCS's were sold at $0.85/ea and expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $2,975!
