Welcome To February!
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.98%
- Nasdaq 100: -1.39%
- Russel 2000: -0.97%
- Bitcoin: -2.33%
Last week, major technology companies reported their quarterly earnings. Microsoft announced a 12% year-over-year increase in revenue, totaling $69.63 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. Meta Platforms also exceeded forecasts, reporting earnings per share of $8.02 and a 21% rise in sales to $48.4 billion. Tesla's results were bolstered by its energy division, contributing to a 4.7% increase in its stock price. Apple reported record revenue of $124.3 billion, with earnings per share of $2.40, though iPhone sales experienced a slight decline.
Despite these positive earnings reports, the stock market faced significant challenges during the week. The unveiling of China's AI startup DeepSeek's R1 model, which offers advanced reasoning capabilities at a lower cost, led to a substantial sell-off in major tech stocks. Nvidia's stock dropped nearly 18%, and other tech giants like Microsoft, Palantir, and Alphabet also experienced declines.
Looking ahead, you should monitor several key economic indicators. On Monday, ISM will release its PMI for January, providing insights into the health of the manufacturing sector. Additionally, BLS is scheduled to release the January employment report on Friday. These updates will be crucial for assessing the economy's trajectory and potential implications for monetary policy. The most impactful news will be related to any escalation of the newly announced trade war. The situation is very much fluid -- Have your notifications on! As always, stock to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, February 3rd
Evening: Palantir
Tuesday, February 4th
Morning: PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer & Spotify
Evening: Alphabet (Google), AMD, Chipotle & Snap
Wednesday, February 5th
Morning: Disney & Uber
Evening: ARM, Ford & Qualcomm
Thursday, February 6th
Morning: Peloton & Roblox
Evening: Affirm, Amazon
Friday, February 7th
Morning: Canopy Growth
Market Events
Monday, February 3rd
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI YoY & MoM (Jan)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Jan)
Tuesday, February 4th
10:00 AM ET JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
02:00 PM ET San Francisco Fed President Daly Speaks
Wednesday, February 5th
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Jan)
01:00 PM ET Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Speaks
Thursday, February 6th
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, February 7th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Jan)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
03:00 PM ET Consumer Credit (Dec)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, February 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 74%
- Profit Factor: 5.91
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, February 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.31
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, February 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 41%
- Profit Factor: 0.44
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, February 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 1.57
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, February 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 1.22
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 6 for 8 times (10 for 14 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~75%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 0 Trades
January Record: 50/58 Units
Monday, January 27th
SPY Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $594/ $593) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (1x Multiple @ $510 / $509) 🟢
Tuesday, January 28th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $597/ $596) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $511 / $510) 🟢
Wednesday, January 29th
No signal produced -- FOMC Day
Thursday, January 30th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $606/ $607) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $526 / $527) 🟢
Friday, January 31st
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $607/ $606) 🔴
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $526 / $525) 🔴
Days of Dry January Survived
31 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
The openings session was ugly, but we still got paid! Piper eventually fired off a bullish signal, so I sold puts. These PCS's were sold at $0.95/ea and were bought back at $0.25/ea (to avoid news risk) -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,400!
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
Feels good to get a solid win on a no-sweat trade. The market showed early morning strength, Piper fired off a bullish signal, so I solid puts. These PCS's were sold at $1.00/ea and were bought back at $0.35/ea -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $3,250!
