Now What?!
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: -0.96%
- Nasdaq 100: -3.40%
- Russel 2000: -1.44%
- Bitcoin: -12.33%
Last week, the market experienced a turbulent week, marked by sharp declines and a late rebound. Early in the week, indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drifted lower, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data and tech stock struggles. By Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off intensified—Nasdaq fell over 1% as tech giants like Nvidia stumbled despite solid earnings, while concerns over Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China rattled investors. Friday saw a recovery, with the Dow jumping 600 points and the S&P 500 gaining 1.6% after benign inflation data calmed fears, though all major indexes still posted monthly losses, with Nasdaq down 4% for February.
The broader economy showed mixed signals. Consumer spending dropped for the first time in nearly two years, and pending home sales fell 4.6% in January, hinting at a slowdown. Inflation data aligned with expectations, easing some pressure on the Federal Reserve, but Treasury yields dipped to 4.20% as worries about growth mounted. Meanwhile, Bitcoin took a hit, trading 25% below its all-time high, down 20% for the month, as crypto markets reacted to tariff uncertainty.
Looking ahead, keep an eye on the fallout from Trump’s tariff announcements, set to take effect on March 4th. There is a high likelihood this will drive volatility. The jobs report, due Friday, will be critical for gauging economic health and the next leg of the market. A weak number could fuel recession fears, while a strong one might pressure inflation expectations. Also, watch the Fed’s next moves—any hint on interest rates could sway markets, especially with inflation lingering and growth concerns rising. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, March 3rd
Morning: Hut 8
Evening: GitLab
Tuesday, March 4th
Morning: Best Buy & Target
Evening: CrowdStrike
Wednesday, March 5th
Morning: Foot Locker
Thursday, March 6th
Morning: BJ's, Cracker Barrel, JD.com, Kroger & Macy's
Evening: Broadcom & Costco
Friday, March 7th
None
Market Events
Monday, March 3rd
05:00 AM ET Eurozone CPI MoM & YoY (Feb)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Feb)
12:35 PM ET St. Louis Fed President Musalem Speaks
Tuesday, March 4th
02:20 PM ET New York Fed President Williams Speaks
Wednesday, March 5th
08:15 AM ET ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
09:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)
10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Feb)
02:00 PM ET Fed Beige Book
Thursday, March 6th
08:15 AM ET ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
08:45 AM ET ECB Press Conference
03:30 PM ET Fed Governor Waller Speaks
07:00 PM ET Atlanta Fed President Bostic Speaks
Friday, March 7th
08:30 AM ET Unemployment Rate (Feb)
08:30 AM ET Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
08:30 AM ET Average Hourly Earnings (Feb)
10:45 AM ET New York Fed President Williams Speaks
12:30 PM ET Fed Chair Powell Speaks
01:30 PM ET President Trump Speaks
03:00 PM ET Consumer Credit
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, March 3rd)
- Bull Win Percentage: 70%
- Profit Factor: 2.71
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, March 4th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 41%
- Profit Factor: 0.78
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, March 5th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 67%
- Profit Factor: 2.26
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, March 6th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.39
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, March 7th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 0.69
- Bias: Leaning Bearish
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 10 times (20 for 24 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~80%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 0 Trades
February Record: 66/76 Units
Monday, February 24th
SPY Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $604/$605) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $530/$531) 🟢
Tuesday, February 25th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $598/$599) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $520/$521) 🟢
Wednesday, February 26th
SPY Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $594/$593) 🟢
QQQ Put Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $514/$513) 🟢
Thursday, February 27th
SPY Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $598/$599) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (3x Multiple @ $520/$521) 🟢
Friday, February 28th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $590/$591) 🔴
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $505/$506) 🔴
Times Stream Accused Me of Being "Sick"
488 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
SPY Hit & QQQ Missed
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and all expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!
