The Bulls Are Back!
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +0.27%
- Nasdaq 100: -0.90%
- Russel 2000: +3.58%
- Bitcoin: -0.45%
Last week, the market was on a rollercoaster ride that finished with a bang. Stocks spent the first half moving slightly down, but on Friday, things ripped higher after Chair Powell hinted that a rate cut could come as soon as September. The Dow popped nearly 850 points to a record close, the S&P 500 flirted with all-time highs, and the Nasdaq joined in with a big 1.9% surge. Small caps had an even bigger move, showing some long-awaited life. For the week overall, the Dow finished up nicely, the S&P was flat to slightly positive, and tech stocks slipped a bit despite Friday’s rally.
On the economic front, fresh data pointed to surprising resilience. Manufacturing activity hit a three-year high, services held steady, and retail sales kept climbing for the tenth month in a row. The flip side? Inflation pressures are still bubbling under the surface, with companies passing higher costs along to consumers. That mix, strong growth but sticky prices, set the stage for Powell’s Jackson Hole comments, where he acknowledged the risks but made it clear the Fed is leaning toward a policy shift.
Looking ahead to next week, the spotlight will be on new data drops and Fed chatter. Jobless claims, PMI reports, and the Philly Fed survey should give us a pulse on labor and growth. Traders will be dissecting every line of the Fed’s July meeting minutes, hunting for clues on how serious they are about cutting rates. With earnings season winding down, sentiment is mostly upbeat, but tariff concerns and inflation jitters are still hanging in the background. As always, stick to your trading plan and respect your risk. Godspeed.
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, Aug 25th
None
Tuesday, Aug 26th
None
Wednesday, Aug 27th
Morning: Kohl's
Evening: CrowdStrike, Nvidia & Snowflake
Thursday, Aug 28th
Morning: Best Buy & Dollar General
Evening: Affirm, Dell & ULTA
Friday, Aug 29th
Morning: Alibaba
Market Events
Monday, Aug 25th
10:00 AM ET New Home Sales (Jul)
Tuesday, Aug 26th
08:30 AM ET Durable Goods MoM & YoY (Jul)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence (Aug)
Wednesday, Aug 27th
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, Aug 28th
08:30 AM ET GDP QoQ (Q2)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales (Jul)
Friday, Aug 29th
08:30 AM ET PCE Price Index MoM & YoY (Jul)
08:30 AM ET Personal Income & Spending (Jul)
09:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (Aug)
10:00 AM ET Consumer Sentiment (Aug)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, Aug 25th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 2.74
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, Aug 26th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 67%
- Profit Factor: 1.45
- Bias: Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, Aug 27th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.05
- Bias: Leaning Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, Aug 28th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 52%
- Profit Factor: 0.79
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, Aug 29th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 44%
- Profit Factor: 0.84
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past +25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 8 for 8 times (16 for 16 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 15 Trades
August Record: 56/60 Units
Monday, Aug 18th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $644 / $645) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $578 / $579) 🟢
Tuesday, Aug 19th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $645 / $646) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $577 / $578) 🟢
Wednesday, Aug 20th
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $640 / $641) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $569 / $570) 🟢
Thursday, Aug 21st
SPY Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $639 / $640) 🟢
QQQ Call Credit Spread (2x Multiple @ $568 / $569) 🟢
Friday, Aug 22nd
No Signal Produced
Times Powell Pumped The Market
1 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
SPY missed & QQQ hit
