The Bulls Are Back In Town!
Hey,
Key Weekly Performance Stats:
- S&P 500: +5.70%
- Nasdaq 100: +7.49%
- Russel 2000: +1.82%
- Bitcoin: -0.57%
Last week, all markets experienced extreme volatility driven by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. The week began with a sharp sell-off as markets reacted to escalating trade tensions, particularly after China imposed a 34% retaliatory tariff. Stocks were on track to have their worst week since March 2020. Midweek, a historic rally occurred when Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs (except for China, which faced a 145% rate). However, renewed fears of a trade war with China’s counter-tariff of 125% and ongoing uncertainty caused stocks to slide again by week’s end, though Friday saw a partial recovery. High bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury nearing 4.6%, and an elevated VIX reflect investors current hesitation.
Economic data releases during the week added context but were overshadowed by trade policy chaos. The CPI & PPI reports, released on April 10 and 11, signaled cooling inflationary pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that tariffs were “larger than expected,” likely leading to higher inflation and slower growth, yet he maintained a wait-and-see stance on rate changes. Strong March jobs data did little to ease recession fears, as consumer sentiment plummeted, with the University of Michigan’s index dropping to the lowest since June 2022, and inflation expectations surging to. Additionally, corporate earnings from banks like JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley showed resilience but highlighted concerns about economic slowdown.
Looking ahead, you should monitor developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, as any escalation or de-escalation could trigger sharp market swings. Key economic releases include March’s retail sales and industrial production data, which will offer insights into consumer and manufacturing health amid tariff disruptions. The Federal Reserve’s next moves remain critical, with markets looking for signals on whether it will adjust rates to counter tariff-induced inflation or hold steady. Prepare for large swings, respect your risk, and stick to your trading plan. Godspeed.
Best,
Thicc Kohrs
P.S. The official Goonie Discord is live! (FREE Access w/ code GOONIE: https://bit.ly/GoonieGroup)
Earnings
Monday, April 14th
Morning: Goldman Sachs
Tuesday, April 15th
Morning: Bank of America, Citi, J&J & PNC
Evening: Interactive Brokers & United
Wednesday, April 16th
Morning: ASML
Thursday, April 17th
Morning: American Express, TSMC & UnitedHealth Group
Evening: Netflix
Friday, April 18th
None
Market Events
Monday, April 14th
06:00 PM ET Philadelphia Fed President Harker Speaks
07:40 PM ET Atlanta Fed President Bostic Speaks
Tuesday, April 15th
08:30 AM ET Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Apr)
Wednesday, April 16th
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales MoM &YoY (Mar)
12:00 PM ET Cleveland Fed President Hammack Speaks
01:15 PM ET Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Thursday, April 17th
08:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)
08:30 AM ET Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, April 18th
ALL DAY Market Closed (Good Friday)
Seasonality Update
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Monday, April 14th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 48%
- Profit Factor: 0.42
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Tuesday, April 15th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 1.26
- Bias: Neutral
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Wednesday, April 16th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 74%
- Profit Factor: 4.29
- Bias: Very Bullish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Thursday, April 17th)
- Bull Win Percentage: 56%
- Profit Factor: 0.49
- Bias: Bearish
Equity Curve -->
S&P 500 Seasonal Bias (Friday, April 18th)
- Market Closed All Day (Good Friday)
Notes: These analytics are derived from the performance of the S&P 500 futures contract over the past 25 years. Additionally, results are computed from the futures market open and close.
Options Strategy Update
The 0 DTE signal hit 0 for 0 times (0 for 0 total units) this past week.
Signal Accuracy: ~100%
Note: These signals are posted in real-time in the Goonie Trading Discord. You can join the Goonie Discord for FREE w/ code GOONIE (Click Here!)!!!
Piper's Current Signal Streak: 16 Trades
April Record: 6/6 Units
Monday, April 7th
No Signal Produced
Tuesday, April 8th
No Signal Produced
Wednesday, April 9th
No Signal Produced
Thursday, April 10th
No Signal Produced
Friday, April 11th
No Signal Produced
Times I Wanted To Quit Trading
69,420 *
* This data point is from readings over the past week. The reported information should not be taken as an aggregate or cumulative value for any period beyond the most recent week (Sunday through Saturday). Appropriate alterations were made to account for both travel and time zone shifts.
Notes
RISK WARNING: Trading involves HIGH RISK and YOU CAN LOSE a lot of money. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Trading is not suitable for all investors. We are not registered investment advisors. We do not provide trading or investment advice. We provide research and education through the issuance of statistical information containing no expression of opinion as to the investment merits of a particular security. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites.
SPY Hit & QQQ Missed
Both of these trades hit if held until close -- 4 total units!
These PCS's were sold at $0.60/ea and all expired worthless -- THIS MEANS MY REALIZED GAIN WAS $1,200!
